More broadly, how convinced are you that the net increase in net wellbeing attributable to avoided COVID-19 mortality/complications will outpace the decrease in wellbeing due to school closures, economic devastation, suspended elective surgeries, general stress/anxiety/fear etc?
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You are conflating topics. Masks look like a smart cost-benefit play. School closings and business closings were smart during the initial fog of the unknown, but not at this point.
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I concede that; it occurred to me that you likely don't support all of those, but twitter length prevents/ed me from elaborating. Let's focus on that then - why does it look like a smart cost/benefit play to you? The theoretical mechanism doesn't even make sense.
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Replying to @RyanKemper10 @ScottAdamsSays and
I do have to mention though that both school closures and business closures were not smart during the fog of the unknown. This is the fallacy that it's better to *do something* than to do nothing. If you're lost in a 20-dimensional space, don't start walking randomly
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I never want to be in an emergency situation with you. You don't seem to have the right kind of judgement for that.
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I could say the same. Go back a couple millennia and you'd be partaking in ritualistic sacrifice to ward off the evil spirits. I'm curious why you'd pollute the discussion by making such an empty comment though. Why won't you engage with any sense of rigor? It comes off poorly.
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I think you said that you would not wear a mask on day one of a deadly pandemic, no matter how many experts say it probably helps, because there would be no proof (or possibility of proof) initially. Did I get that right?
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No, you didn't get that right. It is true that I don't believe in believing smth just b/c an expert said it tho. Although, you seem to be using some schrodinger's cat logic here. You started this discussion by scoffing at the opinion of these experts:https://aapsonline.org/mask-facts/
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Let's keep this simple. There are no studies on Coronavirus transmission and masks, but most experts agree it probably helps more than it hurts, for very obvious reasons. No matter how many studies of OTHER THINGS you send me, it doesn't change those facts.
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There is a randomized controlled trial of self-infection, which is a type of transmission. I agree transmission to others is not studied because it can't feasibly be studied, and yet you recommend unfalsifiable policies all the same. I think that's a big source of our disagreemn
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I recommend good risk-management. We don't make ANY decisions with adequate data. This is no different. Doing nothing is a decision too, and can't be supported by any reason or data.
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Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @RyanKemper10 and
I caught myself steering the car with my knee while I applied hand sanitizer. I'm thinking that might be bad risk management...
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