Did someone tell you we solved the problem of long-haulers? And if you don't know what the question means, you have some research to do about the virus.
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Well, I definitely think that the hype around "long COVID" (I assume that's what you're referring to) is completely overblown, and to the extent it occurs it also occurs in other viruses we don't freak out about. But more importantly, I do take that into account. Briefly...
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You base that "thinking" on what? A hunch?
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I would use the word "priors". I've looked at the literature that claimed long-term hard damage, long-term lung damage, etc. In almost all cases it's overblown or statistically irrelevant. Let me give you some studies here:
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Replying to @RyanKemper10 @ScottAdamsSays and
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-27359/v1 … > Radiological abnormalities in patients of severe COVID-19 could be completely absorbed with no residual lung injury in more than two months’ follow-up
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Replying to @RyanKemper10 @ScottAdamsSays and
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1046/j.1440-1843.2003.00522.x … (SARS-1 pathology) > Preliminary evidence suggests that these lung function abnormalities will improve over time This is obviously SARS-1 but I think SARS-1 is a great model of what severe COVID-19 looks like.
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Replying to @RyanKemper10 @ScottAdamsSays and
I know that a lot of the "long-term damage" claims are about more than just lung issues. Like I said, most of the literature I've seen is not very convincing. A couple months of fatigue following SARS-1 or severe SARS-2 infection? Sure. Life-long ME/CFS? Vanishingly unlikely.
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How do you calculate the odds?
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That depends on the specific claim in question (vague enduring fatigue? or specifically years-long physical damage? etc). But the same way anyone does, looking at the studies. To flip it around, what do you estimate the prevalence of "long COVID" or similar to be?
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Replying to @RyanKemper10 @ScottAdamsSays and
More broadly, how convinced are you that the net increase in net wellbeing attributable to avoided COVID-19 mortality/complications will outpace the decrease in wellbeing due to school closures, economic devastation, suspended elective surgeries, general stress/anxiety/fear etc?
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You are conflating topics. Masks look like a smart cost-benefit play. School closings and business closings were smart during the initial fog of the unknown, but not at this point.
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