The most entertaining outcome is the most likely
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Occam’s razor is a very powerful and real principle in the hard sciences e.g. physics. Social/pseudo science like economics/psychology is a totally different story. On that you are correct
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Occam’s Razor is great w he n it comes to establishing generally-acceptable facts. Obviously it’s not perfect, but it means that the explanation which requires the least amount of random chance and circumstance is the most likely one. It’a really useful in a courtroom, for ex.
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It’s not so great for complex and intangible issues. But it’s great for basic levels of logical thinking. For example, the Eagles decided not to tie the game in the 3rd qtr against the WFT, and went for it on 4th & long instead. They then benched their QB who was playing well.
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Occam’s razor has more to do with the explanation with the fewest assumptions — not necessarily just “simple”.
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Real Occam's razor scenario. You're at Disney World at night, dining at Pinnochio Village Haus. As you exit the building, you notice the ground around the carousel is all wet. Why is it wet?
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Staff hoses off the sidewalks daily. Simple.
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That's wrong. If you have two hypothesises with two sets of assumptions and one set is a subset of the other, then the first is objectively simpler than the other.
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All outcomes are imaginary till they happen. ---Imaginary ones are called "Worries"
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