Quick thread on a new #VitaminD study published in @nature @SciReports. Baseline: High share of severe COVID-19 cases in a hospital in India are Vitamin D deficient. Having that said, I'm not sure if the study is telling us anything new. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-77093-z … (1/n)
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The study differentiates between two groups admitted to hospital due to COVID-19: asymptomatic patients (group A) and patients requiring admission to ICU (group B). It measures the patients' Vitamin D levels and monitors the course of their disease. (2/n)
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In the mild group A, 31.86% were Vitamin D deficient, in the severe group B, 96.82% were Vitamin D deficient. This significant difference partly translated into higher inflammatory markers for group B. Group B also had a much higher fatality rate than group A. (3/n)
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Now the important stuff: Does the study establish any causal relationship? No. First of all, the groups weren't similar upon admission. The average age of group A was 11 years lower than that of group B. Also comorbidities weren't balanced across the groups. So there were.. (4/n)
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...many other potential factors that would be correlated with both the Vitamin D deficit and the higher fatality in group B compared to group A. Second, Vitamin D wasn't administered as part of the study, so it says nothing about the short-run effects of boosting Vitamin D. (5/n)
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My takeaway from the study is that a Vitamin D deficit is an indicator of poor health, and that poor health increases the likelihood of a severe course of COVID-19 - which we totally knew already. But the means of fixing your health aren't (only) fixing your Vitamin D. (6/n)
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Replying to @AndreasShrugged @ScottAdamsSays
If 97% of the severe group was Vit D deficient, it seems likely that NOT having this deficiency would keep you out of that group.
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But maybe only as a marker of bad health, not a cause.
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Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @AndreasShrugged
Perhaps. If only 3% of severe cases have sufficient Vit D, then supplementing seems like prudent risk mitigation.
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