This is what it takes to get Trump over 270... Wins in 8 different states that he's trailing in by between 1 and 8 percent. That's what is called a narrow path. Flip any of those to blue and Biden moves over the threshold. Move them all and you have Biden over 400.
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Yes I'm following your Dad Joke poll theory. It will have to cause an error twice as big as in 2016 to get DJT over 270 ECVs... but it doesn't have to be that big to send several states into chaos, with lawsuits aplenty and SCOTUS deciding how to count the votes.
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