"Transmission itself of course generates immunity. But no one really knows how much is needed for herd immunity, and how long immunity lasts. So it wouldn't have been a very clever goal." – Anders Wallensten, Swedish Deputy State Epidemiologist, quoted today.
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The basic reproduction number R0 of influenza is estimated to be considerably lower than the R0 of COVID-19, which implies a lower herd immunity threshold for influenza:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Mechanics …
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But what will we accept in the trade off, what are we thinking?
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Baseline R is lower for seasonal flu at start of winter (in 1–1.5 range: https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2334-14-480 …), so level needed for population immunity lower too. So ‘burn out’ dynamic you mention for flu will be combination of immunity and seasonal variation in behaviour/transmissibility.
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