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ScottAdamsSays's profile
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
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@ScottAdamsSays

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Scott AdamsVerified account

@ScottAdamsSays

My Micro Lesson (2-4 min. videos) on being more happier and more effective in life are on Locals: http://bit.ly/2Ygv2tf 

Pleasanton CA
youtube.com/c/realCoffeeWi…
Joined October 2014

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    1. Adam Kucharski‏Verified account @AdamJKucharski 15 Oct 2020

      "Transmission itself of course generates immunity. But no one really knows how much is needed for herd immunity, and how long immunity lasts. So it wouldn't have been a very clever goal." – Anders Wallensten, Swedish Deputy State Epidemiologist, quoted today.

      20 replies 131 retweets 404 likes
      Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 18 Oct 2020
      Replying to @AdamJKucharski

      Every flu virus burns out before herd immunity is achieved. No one knows why (is my understanding).

      5:51 AM - 18 Oct 2020
      • 5 Retweets
      • 80 Likes
      • Servus Manner Daniel Watson Jack Boike Ben Davidson Shawna Layman Alex Kirk Perellis Maine Poecile Atricapillus ❌CheriSola on Parler❌
      15 replies 5 retweets 80 likes
        1. Seth‏ @think__thank 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @AdamJKucharski

          Could masks and lack of spread prevent this occurrence? Asking as a hypothesis

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. T 🚫mT 🚫m 🚜 🚚 🇳🇱 🇮🇱 🏛️@gab‏ @NldTmv 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @AdamJKucharski

          Herd immunity is model based right? Climate models? P.s. in the tl from @Covid19Crusher there's data suggesting herd immunity is achieved at a far lower number

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. @shieldscience‏ @shieldscience 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @AdamJKucharski

          But flu is not corona.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. kevin roche‏ @kevinro32551512 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @AdamJKucharski

          or maybe "burning out" is population immunity, just at a lower level as predicted by more sophisticated models using variability in contacts, susceptibility and infectiousness. all that matters is slowing transmission

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Tigers Ruledude‏ @Tigersruledude 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @AdamJKucharski

          Given that we are 8 months into this with nearly zero reinfection...I would tend to think that immunity to Covid last a good bit longer than the flu. I also tend to think smart people like @SunetraGupta would not support a herd immunity strategy if this were an issue.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Adam Kucharski‏Verified account @AdamJKucharski 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays

          Adam Kucharski Retweeted Adam Kucharski

          Large % are infected with flu each year (https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1243466399802146817?s=20 …), which implies immunity is a major reason for decline. Similar story for 2009 flu pandemic (https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection/article/influence-of-school-holiday-timing-on-epidemic-impact/5F0E4508895BB1A1B33DF9BA31FD7277/core-reader …).

          Adam Kucharski added,

          Adam KucharskiVerified account @AdamJKucharski
          So how often do people get infected with influenza (with or without symptoms)? A few years ago, I looked at this with @SRileyIDD & others – using serological data we estimated 40-50% of younger groups were infected each year, and 15-20% of older groups. https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1002082 … 3/ pic.twitter.com/OufSXAyXVH
          Show this thread
          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Adam Kucharski‏Verified account @AdamJKucharski 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @AdamJKucharski @ScottAdamsSays

          Main reason we get recurrent seasonal outbreaks of flu is evolution - populations build immunity to flu within a single season, then antigenic evolution means that immunity is insufficient to ensure R<1 for future strains.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Jackie Fenaroli‏ @mytruebluedog 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @AdamJKucharski

          Hypothesis: Viruses "burn out" when the individuals susceptible to them have been infected.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Arthur Schop‏ @theaschop 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @AdamJKucharski

          They do burn out, if they hadn't we would've been extinct. Problem is, as history shows, it can take decades. The Plague burned out too, not before it wiped off 60% of Europe. Q : How are we preparing against a next one from China, possibly much worse ? A : We aren't.

          3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Drew Kasic‏ @DrewKasic 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @theaschop @ScottAdamsSays @AdamJKucharski

          How do you propose we prepare?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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