"Transmission itself of course generates immunity. But no one really knows how much is needed for herd immunity, and how long immunity lasts. So it wouldn't have been a very clever goal." – Anders Wallensten, Swedish Deputy State Epidemiologist, quoted today.
-
-
Could masks and lack of spread prevent this occurrence? Asking as a hypothesis
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Herd immunity is model based right? Climate models? P.s. in the tl from
@Covid19Crusher there's data suggesting herd immunity is achieved at a far lower numberThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
But flu is not corona.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
or maybe "burning out" is population immunity, just at a lower level as predicted by more sophisticated models using variability in contacts, susceptibility and infectiousness. all that matters is slowing transmission
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Given that we are 8 months into this with nearly zero reinfection...I would tend to think that immunity to Covid last a good bit longer than the flu. I also tend to think smart people like
@SunetraGupta would not support a herd immunity strategy if this were an issue.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Large % are infected with flu each year (https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1243466399802146817?s=20 …), which implies immunity is a major reason for decline. Similar story for 2009 flu pandemic (https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection/article/influence-of-school-holiday-timing-on-epidemic-impact/5F0E4508895BB1A1B33DF9BA31FD7277/core-reader …).
-
Main reason we get recurrent seasonal outbreaks of flu is evolution - populations build immunity to flu within a single season, then antigenic evolution means that immunity is insufficient to ensure R<1 for future strains.
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
Hypothesis: Viruses "burn out" when the individuals susceptible to them have been infected.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
They do burn out, if they hadn't we would've been extinct. Problem is, as history shows, it can take decades. The Plague burned out too, not before it wiped off 60% of Europe. Q : How are we preparing against a next one from China, possibly much worse ? A : We aren't.
-
How do you propose we prepare?
- Show replies
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.