Okay, smart people on Twitter, find the errors in this analysis of Sweden as a success story. https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1292801780515057665 …
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I think 3% is a low estimate, 82,000 confirmed cases divided by 10 million is .008. Multiply that by 50 is 40% since so many are asymptomatic and never get tested as revealed by the antibody studies.
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I don’t think that we really have any idea what percentage of Sweden’s population has been exposed to the coronavirus, but given the fact that they never had lockdowns or school closures, I would guess that it’s much higher than 3%.
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Death rate suggests nowhere near herd.
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Based on antibody tests? Those tend to have high detection thresholds, resulting in systematic underestimation of infections.https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1292607825420722178 …
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The percentage needed depends on the population density. The areas which are high risk of large outbreaks such as Stockholm currently has a much much higher immunity, somewhere between 20-30%.
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