Are “experts” all they are cracked up to be? Expert journalist says, “no”. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/06/how-to-predict-the-future/588040/ … @ScottAdamsSays @StefanMolyneux @ProfTimNoakes @FatEmperor @Sciguy999 @fleroy1974 @gerdosi
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Headlines are not very helpful for predicting the content of articles these days. ‘All Approaches to Predictions are Not Created Equal.’ might have been better.
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You seem to keep arguing that reliable modelling isn't possible. Most of us agree. We don't believe that is the issue though. The issue is Politicians with Police Powers over our lives USING these models as a fig leaf to compel or prohibit behaviors and take our rights away.
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If Politicians didn'thave so much power -we wouldnt care as much about the models. We'd argue, adjust our viewpoints as data came in and gradually move closer to whatever the truth is. But instead, politicians short circuit these processes and make God like decisions for ALL.
End of conversation
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The weather is what i find useful in thinking about this topic. We have tons of tools and technology. The rate of reliability decreases the further you get away from the present. Maybe its more about the reach of reliability
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I can more accurately predict the weather 7 days from now if you give me 6 days to think about it. Each intervening days provides more information resulting in adjustments in thinking. That sounds so banal I want to delete it, but I won't.
End of conversation
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Well, not by humans anyway.
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Scott, I knew that would be your reaction to the title. I scroll down, and there it was.
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Ask the people who predicted a Trump win in 2016....they did it.
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Is
@ScottAdamsSays joking or crazy like a fox? Normally I find Atlantic articles annoying and wrong but this one has kernel of useful info.pic.twitter.com/hFcDoluEkc
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Whatever you do, don’t read an article you disagree with.
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