This answers @ScottAdamsSays question to @CT_Bergstrom . Absent vaccine, outcome requires herd immunity. Unchecked virus overshoots that. If lockdown, can get herd immunity with fewer deaths/infections. https://benjaminmoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/SIR_notes.pdf …
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Compare to our current plan of gradually reopening and pulling back where there are problems. With semi-mitigation, protecting the most vulnerable, would we ever hit 1 million deaths from the virus? Seems deeply unlikely.
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Yes but remember the issue now is not government restrictions but the fear of people. That has a big effect on economic activity. There is no magic wand while the virus is still out there.
End of conversation
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Yep it is brutal. Everything we talk about assumes we are planning on getting this fixed in a year or so. If not, it is out of our hands. But other countries show it can be done. More restrictions leading to faster reopening.
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