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ScottAdamsSays's profile
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Verified account
@ScottAdamsSays

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Scott AdamsVerified account

@ScottAdamsSays

My Micro Lesson (2-4 min. videos) on being more happier and more effective in life are on Locals: http://bit.ly/2Ygv2tf 

Pleasanton CA
youtube.com/c/realCoffeeWi…
Joined October 2014

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    1. Joshua Gans‏Verified account @joshgans 8 May 2020

      This answers @ScottAdamsSays question to @CT_Bergstrom . Absent vaccine, outcome requires herd immunity. Unchecked virus overshoots that. If lockdown, can get herd immunity with fewer deaths/infections. https://benjaminmoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/SIR_notes.pdf …

      4 replies 2 retweets 11 likes
      Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 8 May 2020
      Replying to @joshgans @CT_Bergstrom

      Not calculated is the economic cost (in terms of health/life) and whether we have the real-world option of locking down long enough to get to gentle herd immunity without overshooting.

      5:48 AM - 8 May 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 11 Likes
      • Toussaint Leve Cancel Twatter Alex Mr_Rich Ouroborus🍥 publius072 Jim Beckmeyer Charge & Discharge not Space and Time Luis Díaz
      5 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 8 May 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @joshgans @CT_Bergstrom

          I'd also be careful about making the overshoot claim for a virus so catchy and so asymptomatic. Maybe every path leads to "overshoot" of herd immunity with this one. See prisons at +90% infection and we didn't even notice until too late.

          2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
        3. Joshua Gans‏Verified account @joshgans 8 May 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @CT_Bergstrom

          Yes that is what the slides show. Most lockdowns lead to some overshoot. The margin is to reduce the overshoot.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Joshua Gans‏Verified account @joshgans 8 May 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @CT_Bergstrom

          That’s a different question. But it isn’t hard to work out. Basically go with $500 billion a quarter. If you reduce the number of deaths by 60,000, it is easily worth it. Forecast unchecked was 1-2 million. No contest.

          4 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 8 May 2020
          Replying to @joshgans @CT_Bergstrom

          You assume a lockdown would be short enough that all we lose is a few quarters of productivity. I assume there is a point of no return and we don't know where it is, but I wouldn't push this into the summer.

          1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Resistance Cell Leader Fabyan‏ @AuntEmmaFabyan 8 May 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @joshgans @CT_Bergstrom

          The classic SIR models miss a key element in evaluating lockdowns: R0 is a function of the nature of the virus AND human behavior, voluntary and involuntary. A better model is an agent-based model where the growth of an infected population changes the behavior of the agents. 1/

          1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
        3. Resistance Cell Leader Fabyan‏ @AuntEmmaFabyan 8 May 2020
          Replying to @AuntEmmaFabyan @ScottAdamsSays and

          Some of the agents (people) would voluntarily wear masks, avoid cocktail parties and concerts, work from home (or not at all) etc., based on their individual risk/reward tradeoffs. The question is whether these individual actions lower R enough to minimize overshoot. 2/

          1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
        4. Show replies
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        2. Zoe Keller‏ @KellerZoe 10 May 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @joshgans @CT_Bergstrom

          Indeed. Nobody suggested a strategy based only on herd immunity. The Mitigation is a combination of: - hygiene (wash your hands, surfaces disinfection) - shielding the vulnerable - isolation of the symptomatic - light distancing measures to flatten the curve within NHS capacity

          1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
        3. Zoe Keller‏ @KellerZoe 10 May 2020
          Replying to @KellerZoe @ScottAdamsSays and

          This keeps the epidemic under control and builds up immunity over time. Light distancing measures, like those in Sweden, are more sustainable over time and can be progressively lifted as the immunity brake gets stronger.

          0 replies 1 retweet 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
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