This answers @ScottAdamsSays question to @CT_Bergstrom . Absent vaccine, outcome requires herd immunity. Unchecked virus overshoots that. If lockdown, can get herd immunity with fewer deaths/infections. https://benjaminmoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/SIR_notes.pdf …
-
-
I'd also be careful about making the overshoot claim for a virus so catchy and so asymptomatic. Maybe every path leads to "overshoot" of herd immunity with this one. See prisons at +90% infection and we didn't even notice until too late.
-
Yes that is what the slides show. Most lockdowns lead to some overshoot. The margin is to reduce the overshoot.
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
That’s a different question. But it isn’t hard to work out. Basically go with $500 billion a quarter. If you reduce the number of deaths by 60,000, it is easily worth it. Forecast unchecked was 1-2 million. No contest.
-
You assume a lockdown would be short enough that all we lose is a few quarters of productivity. I assume there is a point of no return and we don't know where it is, but I wouldn't push this into the summer.
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
The classic SIR models miss a key element in evaluating lockdowns: R0 is a function of the nature of the virus AND human behavior, voluntary and involuntary. A better model is an agent-based model where the growth of an infected population changes the behavior of the agents. 1/
-
Some of the agents (people) would voluntarily wear masks, avoid cocktail parties and concerts, work from home (or not at all) etc., based on their individual risk/reward tradeoffs. The question is whether these individual actions lower R enough to minimize overshoot. 2/
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
Indeed. Nobody suggested a strategy based only on herd immunity. The Mitigation is a combination of: - hygiene (wash your hands, surfaces disinfection) - shielding the vulnerable - isolation of the symptomatic - light distancing measures to flatten the curve within NHS capacity
-
This keeps the epidemic under control and builds up immunity over time. Light distancing measures, like those in Sweden, are more sustainable over time and can be progressively lifted as the immunity brake gets stronger.
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
Show additional replies, including those that may contain offensive content
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.