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ScottAdamsSays's profile
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
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@ScottAdamsSays

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Scott AdamsVerified account

@ScottAdamsSays

My Micro Lesson (2-4 min. videos) on being more happier and more effective in life are on Locals: http://bit.ly/2Ygv2tf 

Pleasanton CA
youtube.com/c/realCoffeeWi…
Joined October 2014

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    1. Ben Shapiro‏Verified account @benshapiro 6 May 2020

      We were told to "flatten the curve." Everybody understood that the area under the curve would be the same, i.e. total infections would be the same. The goal was to avoid spiking over the line -- the line being health care resources. We did.

      320 replies 1,602 retweets 10,858 likes
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    2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 7 May 2020
      Replying to @benshapiro

      This thread is premised on the notion that the areas under the curve are the same. They are not. Flattening the curve drops R0. Below is a quick plot showing the fraction of the population infected over the course of the epidemic as a function of R0 in a simple SIR model.pic.twitter.com/JJ5qwSxqbm

      20 replies 50 retweets 458 likes
    3. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 7 May 2020
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @benshapiro

      So by flattening the curve, we not only decrease the number of people simultaneously infected (and thus the strain on our health care system), we decrease the total number of people infected and thus the death toll.

      20 replies 19 retweets 239 likes
    4. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 7 May 2020
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @benshapiro

      I’m not seeing a reason in the argument. Why does postponing when Bob gets infected make Bob not get infected?

      14 replies 3 retweets 91 likes
    5. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 7 May 2020
      Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @benshapiro

      The notion of flattening the curve was a way of popularizing the idea of reducing the transmission rate (more precisely, the basic reproductive number R0) of the virus. Social distancing measures, hygiene, and other epidemic control efforts have this effect.

      5 replies 7 retweets 43 likes
    6. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 7 May 2020
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @ScottAdamsSays @benshapiro

      When you reduce R0, people with the disease transmit to fewer other people. As a result, the herd immunity threshold is lower. Fewer people have to be infected to reach herd immunity — at which point the epidemic starts to slow down.

      7 replies 5 retweets 45 likes
    7. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 7 May 2020
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @ScottAdamsSays @benshapiro

      The epidemic comes to an end with fewer total people infected. It’s not just a matter of delaying when Bob gets infected. A lot fewer Bobs get infected, total.

      8 replies 3 retweets 33 likes
    8. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 7 May 2020
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @benshapiro

      I haven't seen the why of it. If we drive the infections to zero in this country tomorrow, but don't close airports, we arrive at herd immunity eventually, same number infected in the long run.

      8 replies 3 retweets 24 likes
    9. John Mandrola, MD‏Verified account @drjohnm 7 May 2020
      Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @CT_Bergstrom @benshapiro

      SA, CB, I tried to write about this topic. Could you poke any holes in my argument?https://www.drjohnm.org/2020/05/can-we-discuss-flatten-the-curve-in-covid19-my-eight-assertions/ …

      19 replies 16 retweets 64 likes
    10. Anatoly Lubarsky‏ @anatoly 7 May 2020
      Replying to @drjohnm @ScottAdamsSays and

      1st argument that the virus can't be contained is wrong. The virus is contained now in France despite high penetration and initially high number of cases and deaths. Germany is on the way to contain it too.

      6 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 7 May 2020
      Replying to @anatoly @drjohnm and

      How do you contain a virus when you have porous borders?

      10:13 AM - 7 May 2020
      • 3 Retweets
      • 107 Likes
      • Debbie 🧡🙏🏼 FireAndForget Taz Jasper Coolidge 🇺🇸 T C Kellermann Sam Mobasher Deca the Bard Gareth Jones autistic campus 🏳️‍⚧️
      23 replies 3 retweets 107 likes
        1. mazzaroth‏ @mazzaroth10 7 May 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @anatoly and

          And how do you contain a virus that's already permeated the populace?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Midwest Thinker‏ @PoliticaLowlife 7 May 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @anatoly and

          Imagine if WWII had same amount of soldiers but only 1/4 bullets. Outcome would be similar to flattening curve.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Skippy‏ @paddua 7 May 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @anatoly and

          as long as the porosity is no more then 3 micron :)

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Anatoly Lubarsky‏ @anatoly 7 May 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @drjohnm and

          We still can improve on so many levels. Simple example: we are wearing masks but not wearing glasses. Enforce wearing masks (big fines). Disinfect regularly public transportation, public laundries etc. NYC has 2500 public laundries.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Nate‏ @run8tech 7 May 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @anatoly and

          True, This virus will make the world more nationalistic than ever. We will see way stricter requirements to travel between countries. God help you if you ever get it as you will never be let into any other country ever.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Anatoly Lubarsky‏ @anatoly 7 May 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @drjohnm and

          and BTW!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. HarbingerOfNeanderthals‏ @Harbinger0fD00M 7 May 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @anatoly and

          excellent question- you dont. next?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. fko67‏ @fko67 7 May 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @anatoly and

          It not contained in Germany and France, its run its course.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. @PearlBeyondPrice‏ @PearlBeyondPri1 7 May 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @anatoly and

          If this is a chronic recurrent virus, which it may well be, then it may go underground as it appeared to be contained cuz those who are having symptoms have been given HCQ. That’s great. It’s slowed the transmission. But I don’t think people who were infected or cured forever.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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