The epidemic comes to an end with fewer total people infected. It’s not just a matter of delaying when Bob gets infected. A lot fewer Bobs get infected, total.
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Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @benshapiro
I haven't seen the why of it. If we drive the infections to zero in this country tomorrow, but don't close airports, we arrive at herd immunity eventually, same number infected in the long run.
8 replies 3 retweets 24 likes -
Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @benshapiro
There's an enormous amount to unpack here. If we reach a vaccine in 2 years, say, far fewer people will be infected if we drive infections to zero and continue to take steps to control the disease, e.g. test-trace-isolate.
5 replies 1 retweet 30 likes -
Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @benshapiro
I looked through your overshoot thread and don't see any argument for why a flattened curve would not simply postpone infections versus lower them. Is there some assumption you make that is not obvious to me?
5 replies 1 retweet 14 likes -
Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @benshapiro
Yes, there must be, but I haven't figure out what it is. I mean, everything from an SIR model to the most complex agent-based simulations yields this result. The bottom line is that e.g. flu (R0=~1.4) infects a smaller portion of the population than e.g. measles (R0>10)...
2 replies 0 retweets 13 likes -
I think what Scott is worried about is that if we do NPIs to push down R0 to R0’, then when we get to HI based on R0’ and relax doesn’t that leave room to pop back up to R0 HI as per your graph that looks at end points of the outbreak?
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Carl T. Bergstrom Retweeted Carl T. Bergstrom
Good question, if that's the issue. The key that epidemics have momentum of a sort and they overshoot the herd immunity threshold. If you reduce the height of the epidemic peak, you reduce the momentum and the overshoot. https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1251999295231819778 … https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html …
Carl T. Bergstrom added,
Carl T. BergstromVerified account @CT_Bergstrom1. An hour ago I posted a thread explaining the concept of herd immunity and the problem of overshoot, whereby an epidemic infects more people that are required for herd immunity. Despite disclaimers, people interpreted it as an endorsement of the herd immunity approach.Show this thread3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes -
I can see that making sense for a quick-killing virus. I'm less convinced it works for one that is already global and mostly asymptomatic for weeks. Give me one infected traveler to this country and half of my town is infected before the first patient is discovered.
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Ah then what you are saying is that R0 hasn’t really been reduced by as much. But I think the evidence does contradict that as we should see original R0-based outbreaks in many places.
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Replying to @joshgans @ScottAdamsSays and
No I think he's saying it's very easy to reach a high R0 again once we get out of the most severe lockdown. Bouncing back and forth between an R0 of 1 and an R0 of 3 or 5 would arguably make it difficult to say what we could expect regarding the final death count.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
Why are you the only person on Twitter who understand me?
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