I’m not seeing a reason in the argument. Why does postponing when Bob gets infected make Bob not get infected?
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Ah then what you are saying is that R0 hasn’t really been reduced by as much. But I think the evidence does contradict that as we should see original R0-based outbreaks in many places.
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No I think he's saying it's very easy to reach a high R0 again once we get out of the most severe lockdown. Bouncing back and forth between an R0 of 1 and an R0 of 3 or 5 would arguably make it difficult to say what we could expect regarding the final death count.
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I think u should rephrase this, Scott, as "makes sense for an epidemic that approaches the HI threshold while still on an exponential trajectory". The biggest problem with Carl's models is they all presume mid & late stage exponential growth that is unlikely in reality.
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