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ScottAdamsSays's profile
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Verified account
@ScottAdamsSays

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Scott AdamsVerified account

@ScottAdamsSays

My Micro Lesson (2-4 min. videos) on being more happier and more effective in life are on Locals: http://bit.ly/2Ygv2tf 

Pleasanton CA
youtube.com/c/realCoffeeWi…
Joined October 2014

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    1. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 7 May 2020
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @benshapiro

      I’m not seeing a reason in the argument. Why does postponing when Bob gets infected make Bob not get infected?

      14 replies 3 retweets 91 likes
    2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 7 May 2020
      Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @benshapiro

      The notion of flattening the curve was a way of popularizing the idea of reducing the transmission rate (more precisely, the basic reproductive number R0) of the virus. Social distancing measures, hygiene, and other epidemic control efforts have this effect.

      5 replies 7 retweets 43 likes
    3. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 7 May 2020
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @ScottAdamsSays @benshapiro

      When you reduce R0, people with the disease transmit to fewer other people. As a result, the herd immunity threshold is lower. Fewer people have to be infected to reach herd immunity — at which point the epidemic starts to slow down.

      7 replies 5 retweets 45 likes
    4. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 7 May 2020
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @ScottAdamsSays @benshapiro

      The epidemic comes to an end with fewer total people infected. It’s not just a matter of delaying when Bob gets infected. A lot fewer Bobs get infected, total.

      8 replies 3 retweets 33 likes
    5. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 7 May 2020
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @benshapiro

      I haven't seen the why of it. If we drive the infections to zero in this country tomorrow, but don't close airports, we arrive at herd immunity eventually, same number infected in the long run.

      8 replies 3 retweets 24 likes
    6. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 7 May 2020
      Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @benshapiro

      There's an enormous amount to unpack here. If we reach a vaccine in 2 years, say, far fewer people will be infected if we drive infections to zero and continue to take steps to control the disease, e.g. test-trace-isolate.

      5 replies 1 retweet 30 likes
    7. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 7 May 2020
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @benshapiro

      I looked through your overshoot thread and don't see any argument for why a flattened curve would not simply postpone infections versus lower them. Is there some assumption you make that is not obvious to me?

      5 replies 1 retweet 14 likes
    8. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 7 May 2020
      Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @benshapiro

      Yes, there must be, but I haven't figure out what it is. I mean, everything from an SIR model to the most complex agent-based simulations yields this result. The bottom line is that e.g. flu (R0=~1.4) infects a smaller portion of the population than e.g. measles (R0>10)...

      2 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
    9. Joshua Gans‏Verified account @joshgans 7 May 2020
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @ScottAdamsSays @benshapiro

      I think what Scott is worried about is that if we do NPIs to push down R0 to R0’, then when we get to HI based on R0’ and relax doesn’t that leave room to pop back up to R0 HI as per your graph that looks at end points of the outbreak?

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    10. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 7 May 2020
      Replying to @joshgans @ScottAdamsSays @benshapiro

      Carl T. Bergstrom Retweeted Carl T. Bergstrom

      Good question, if that's the issue. The key that epidemics have momentum of a sort and they overshoot the herd immunity threshold. If you reduce the height of the epidemic peak, you reduce the momentum and the overshoot. https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1251999295231819778 … https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html …

      Carl T. Bergstrom added,

      Carl T. BergstromVerified account @CT_Bergstrom
      1. An hour ago I posted a thread explaining the concept of herd immunity and the problem of overshoot, whereby an epidemic infects more people that are required for herd immunity. Despite disclaimers, people interpreted it as an endorsement of the herd immunity approach.
      Show this thread
      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 7 May 2020
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @joshgans @benshapiro

      I can see that making sense for a quick-killing virus. I'm less convinced it works for one that is already global and mostly asymptomatic for weeks. Give me one infected traveler to this country and half of my town is infected before the first patient is discovered.

      5:32 AM - 7 May 2020
      • 3 Retweets
      • 4 Likes
      • the Georgia boy Alex ♞ Steven Douglas 🇺🇸 John Mandrola, MD P. $ully ~ 2+2=4 ~ Woke, Wokey, Wokiest!
      2 replies 3 retweets 4 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Joshua Gans‏Verified account @joshgans 7 May 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @CT_Bergstrom @benshapiro

          Ah then what you are saying is that R0 hasn’t really been reduced by as much. But I think the evidence does contradict that as we should see original R0-based outbreaks in many places.

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Andreas Backhaus‏ @AndreasShrugged 7 May 2020
          Replying to @joshgans @ScottAdamsSays and

          No I think he's saying it's very easy to reach a high R0 again once we get out of the most severe lockdown. Bouncing back and forth between an R0 of 1 and an R0 of 3 or 5 would arguably make it difficult to say what we could expect regarding the final death count.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. Brian Dell‏ @Brian_Dell 7 May 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @CT_Bergstrom @joshgans

          I think u should rephrase this, Scott, as "makes sense for an epidemic that approaches the HI threshold while still on an exponential trajectory". The biggest problem with Carl's models is they all presume mid & late stage exponential growth that is unlikely in reality.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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