We were told to "flatten the curve." Everybody understood that the area under the curve would be the same, i.e. total infections would be the same. The goal was to avoid spiking over the line -- the line being health care resources. We did.
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Replying to @benshapiro
This thread is premised on the notion that the areas under the curve are the same. They are not. Flattening the curve drops R0. Below is a quick plot showing the fraction of the population infected over the course of the epidemic as a function of R0 in a simple SIR model.pic.twitter.com/JJ5qwSxqbm
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Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @benshapiro
So by flattening the curve, we not only decrease the number of people simultaneously infected (and thus the strain on our health care system), we decrease the total number of people infected and thus the death toll.
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Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @benshapiro
I’m not seeing a reason in the argument. Why does postponing when Bob gets infected make Bob not get infected?
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Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @benshapiro
The notion of flattening the curve was a way of popularizing the idea of reducing the transmission rate (more precisely, the basic reproductive number R0) of the virus. Social distancing measures, hygiene, and other epidemic control efforts have this effect.
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When you reduce R0, people with the disease transmit to fewer other people. As a result, the herd immunity threshold is lower. Fewer people have to be infected to reach herd immunity — at which point the epidemic starts to slow down.
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Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @benshapiro
This doctor sees it the way I do:https://www.drjohnm.org/2020/05/can-we-discuss-flatten-the-curve-in-covid19-my-eight-assertions/ …
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Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @benshapiro
Scott, it's entirely possible that thousands of infectious disease epidemiologists are mistaken and/or lying. Or maybe your intuitions are wrong. It's 5:20 AM here; I'm midway through yet another 100 hour week. Wish I could keep trying to find where we differ, but I need sleep.
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We agree on that! I've been working since 3 AM so I hear you.
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Come back please, both of you, when Ben is awake, too.
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