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ScottAdamsSays's profile
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Verified account
@ScottAdamsSays

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Scott AdamsVerified account

@ScottAdamsSays

My Micro Lesson (2-4 min. videos) on being more happier and more effective in life are on Locals: http://bit.ly/2Ygv2tf 

Pleasanton CA
youtube.com/c/realCoffeeWi…
Joined October 2014

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    1. Ben Shapiro‏Verified account @benshapiro 6 May 2020

      We were told to "flatten the curve." Everybody understood that the area under the curve would be the same, i.e. total infections would be the same. The goal was to avoid spiking over the line -- the line being health care resources. We did.

      320 replies 1,602 retweets 10,858 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 7 May 2020
      Replying to @benshapiro

      This thread is premised on the notion that the areas under the curve are the same. They are not. Flattening the curve drops R0. Below is a quick plot showing the fraction of the population infected over the course of the epidemic as a function of R0 in a simple SIR model.pic.twitter.com/JJ5qwSxqbm

      20 replies 50 retweets 458 likes
    3. Andreas Backhaus‏ @AndreasShrugged 7 May 2020
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @benshapiro

      Does that mean the epidemic will end with a lower share of the population being infected? Is that a relevant argument if we assume that the virus will be reintroduced to the population e.g. by travel and a large share of the population isn't immune?

      1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
    4. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 7 May 2020
      Replying to @AndreasShrugged @benshapiro

      In general, yes. The gains you see will be less than the ones plotted in my diagram if the mitigation measures are temporary, but you will still see some gains with magnitude that depend on the timing and duration of mitigation.

      2 replies 0 retweets 23 likes
    5. Andreas Backhaus‏ @AndreasShrugged 7 May 2020
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @benshapiro

      Follow-up: 1) Plotted curve is concave as even with high R0, herd immunity kicks in before 100%? 2) With lower R0, epidemic peters out at a lower share infected due to mix of some immunity and slower spread? 3) If we kept R0 at 1.5 for 1 year instead of 3 - lives saved?

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Andreas Backhaus‏ @AndreasShrugged 7 May 2020
      Replying to @AndreasShrugged @CT_Bergstrom @benshapiro

      I'm aware 3) is a totally hypothetical question, but what would a simple model suggest? Assuming in one year we will have a vaccine.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 7 May 2020
      Replying to @AndreasShrugged @CT_Bergstrom @benshapiro

      I love watching you ask questions on Twitter. You have correctly identified that the argument had no actual reasons in it. I looked and couldn't find any.

      3 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    8. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 7 May 2020
      Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @AndreasShrugged @benshapiro

      Curious whether you agree with this assessment, @AndreasShrugged

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 7 May 2020
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @AndreasShrugged @benshapiro

      I'm not disagreeing so much as not seeing it in evidence.

      4:57 AM - 7 May 2020
      • 5 Likes
      • Adam Dean Josh Friedlander The Quest for Cosmic Justice by Sowell Andreas Backhaus
      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        1. Andreas Backhaus‏ @AndreasShrugged 7 May 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @CT_Bergstrom @benshapiro

          Maybe you should have a cup of coffee together on a Periscope? Your time zones should be similar.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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