We were told to "flatten the curve." Everybody understood that the area under the curve would be the same, i.e. total infections would be the same. The goal was to avoid spiking over the line -- the line being health care resources. We did.
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Replying to @benshapiro
This thread is premised on the notion that the areas under the curve are the same. They are not. Flattening the curve drops R0. Below is a quick plot showing the fraction of the population infected over the course of the epidemic as a function of R0 in a simple SIR model.pic.twitter.com/JJ5qwSxqbm
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Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @benshapiro
Does that mean the epidemic will end with a lower share of the population being infected? Is that a relevant argument if we assume that the virus will be reintroduced to the population e.g. by travel and a large share of the population isn't immune?
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Replying to @AndreasShrugged @benshapiro
In general, yes. The gains you see will be less than the ones plotted in my diagram if the mitigation measures are temporary, but you will still see some gains with magnitude that depend on the timing and duration of mitigation.
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Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @benshapiro
Follow-up: 1) Plotted curve is concave as even with high R0, herd immunity kicks in before 100%? 2) With lower R0, epidemic peters out at a lower share infected due to mix of some immunity and slower spread? 3) If we kept R0 at 1.5 for 1 year instead of 3 - lives saved?
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I'm aware 3) is a totally hypothetical question, but what would a simple model suggest? Assuming in one year we will have a vaccine.
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I love watching you ask questions on Twitter. You have correctly identified that the argument had no actual reasons in it. I looked and couldn't find any.
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Curious whether you agree with this assessment,
@AndreasShrugged2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
I'm not disagreeing so much as not seeing it in evidence.
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Maybe you should have a cup of coffee together on a Periscope? Your time zones should be similar.
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