We were told to "flatten the curve." Everybody understood that the area under the curve would be the same, i.e. total infections would be the same. The goal was to avoid spiking over the line -- the line being health care resources. We did.
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SA, CB, I tried to write about this topic. Could you poke any holes in my argument?https://www.drjohnm.org/2020/05/can-we-discuss-flatten-the-curve-in-covid19-my-eight-assertions/ …
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do you have opinion on relative transmission risk by Flugge v aerosol v fomites? saw Lancet article on super-spread events implying Flugge is by far biggest which would make me think masks+distance alone biggest bang/$ risk reduction? not dismissing others but on marginal util...
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In a fast epidemic, more people get infected than necessary for herd immunity. Any reduction in R0 will reduce the speed of the infection, the number of infected, and the number of recovered necessary for herd immunity.
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It sounds like your definition of herd immunity is not the same as
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That's exactly what he just told you would not be the case. The lower the R0 value, the smaller the number of infected people that correspond to herd immunity. The herd immunity threshold is not a fixed target, it depends on how fast the disease spreads.
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Yes, but lowering the replication rate by countermeasures is only an artificial lowering.
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There's an enormous amount to unpack here. If we reach a vaccine in 2 years, say, far fewer people will be infected if we drive infections to zero and continue to take steps to control the disease, e.g. test-trace-isolate.
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If we never find a vaccine but reach herd immunity eventually, the total number of cases infected will be more than the herd immunity threshold 1-1/R0. How much more? That depends on the size of the epidemic peak. The same number we are trying to keep down with
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You've still got to bump into someone with the disease who's sneezed or coughed or spat or talked messily to get the disease. Less of them around, less chance of getting infected.
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Carl doesn’t count for lockdowns being lifted
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