My question is specific. Is there even one person who took the drug prophylactically and still got the virus?
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Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @AndreasShrugged
There are many reports of this, yes. I’ll be clear without violating anyone’s privacy. We’ve heard some doctors took hydroxychloroquine in an attempt to prophylax and some of those docs got the virus. Were their rates of infection (adjusted for risk) were


?
Unknown11 replies 0 retweets 16 likes -
I feel like we're being misled or lied to about this. What are other countries doing with HCQ? Is there a role for zinc in combination? Why am I seeing anecdotes about senior centers treating with it and having tremendous success? I get orange man bad, but is all the data in?
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I think simply nobody knows. What's the chance somebody would know but not leak it around to save countless lives?
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What are the odds China or Russia would feed us disinformation about the risks and effectiveness so they can hoard supply of it without starting a war?
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would depend on the presence & realibility of evidence for that claim. Also you’d have to account for reliable data coming in from elsewhere. We‘re doing trials. But those doing the trials are ethically bound to halt trials early if the drugs are working so well, statistically.
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Would it be safe to say, based on the fact that no trials have ended early, that they are seeing no clear benefits?
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No. It’d be safer to say that there’s no slam dunk large benefit. Smaller benefits could emerge if power calculations used to design the study were accurate (usually are). Trials stop early when drug exceeds even those expectations. Like the reverse of a mercy rule in ping pong.
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Asking another way, can we rule out "game changer"?
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Define game changer.
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Defined as keeping our hospitals below capacity even if we open up everything.
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I do not believe hydroxychloroquine will make a substantial difference in that regard. We may achieve that through other means, but I’ve yet to see any good data to suggest hcq will play a substantial (if any) role in that.
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Thanks for your assessment.
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End of conversation
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