200k is definitely in the range of possible total deaths from the disease.
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After opening, that would be on the low end, unless we get clever with science before then.
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That's where I'm not sure. I don't think we will have very much death over the summer months. The question is whether the virus will come back in the fall.
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June should be higher because of more socializing. We will soon know. The second bump is the scary one.
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I doubt June will be higher than April was. There is more to it than simply people socializing. Viral life in the environment has a huge impact on transmission. Plus increased temps and humidity lead to generally healthier people during the warm months.
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Depends on herd immunity is my non-professional guess. Regular flu reaches herd immunity and warm weather at about the same time. Makes warm weather seem more effective. This one peaks later and might have limited herd immunity. We shall see.
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I honestly can't say whether that is an accurate portrayal of the flu or not. I'll have to do a little more reading on that. My non-professional understanding of the flu was that we reached herd immunity, but that the viral life cycle is impacted so much by the weather.
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My guess is that you need both herd immunity and weather to get R <0, and Coronavirus might only have weather working against it if herd immunity is not effective.
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Well the R0 is impacted by many things. Remember that R0 is not static. Social distancing impacts R0, for example. I think that the weather will greatly reduce transmission. The virus just doesn't live outside as long as in the cold months. That plus getting people out of
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Weather helps, but normally it has a boost from herd immunity (we are not close to it with this virus), a vaccination that helps somewhat, lower virality than CV19 (we think), and an upcoming explosion of new social contacting. That's a lot of "work" for weather to do!
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I agree with a lot of that. Looking at the H1N1 of 2019, which started much later in the year, it still spread during the warmer months. But, the real explosion didn't occur until September when temps cooled down again. That's my rationale for thinking it will slow a lot.
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