What happens when we look back at this situation and realize that everyone who said we should use data to make decisions got everything wrong because we can’t agree what data is credible and we don’t know how to compare things anyway?
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That's striking but strictly speaking not a data issue, just a matter of which countries to throw into the diagram. A data issue would be whether deaths are recorded in the same way in all these countries (they aren't).
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That's correct but it's an unskilled conclusion that the data are hence useless. You can think about (and calculate) in which way the data are unreliable and in which direction this would bias your interpretation and analysis. That's what empirical research does all the time.
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Well, that works IF we have all important variables in a workable state and understand how big the uncertainty is In our case R, IFR, CFR, effects of the illness on the infected R and CFR we seem to grasp IFR, mid- and long term effects we score pretty much a blank + more
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Data are seldom reliable in any major crisis or human conflict. Decisions must often come from the gut and are best guided by experience and common sense.
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The data isn't just wrong, it is skewed. This is beneficial because it isn't just a +/- 5% situation. (could be high, could be low... just can't know) It is specifically skewed high in order to scare people. So, if someone was smart enough, they would have known that.
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So, a while back there was a Dilbert that ask how can you tell the difference between someone who is a lot smarter than you and someone who is a lot dumber than you. (Because either way you wouldn't understand why they do what they do) Well, here ya go.
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Data compiler bias.
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