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ScottAdamsSays's profile
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Verified account
@ScottAdamsSays

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Scott AdamsVerified account

@ScottAdamsSays

My Micro Lesson (2-4 min. videos) on being more happier and more effective in life are on Locals: http://bit.ly/2Ygv2tf 

Pleasanton CA
youtube.com/c/realCoffeeWi…
Joined October 2014

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    1. Naval‏ @naval 20 Apr 2020

      Recent serology studies may be wrong. But if wrong, they‘re all wrong *in the same direction.* Finnish: 20-50x undercount Scottish: 27-55x Stanford: 50-85x Italian: 30x Mass: 17x Germany: 0.37% CFR Denmark: 0.21% If true, COVID19 has much more spread and much lower fatality.

      125 replies 610 retweets 2,420 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 20 Apr 2020
      Replying to @naval

      Would false positives normally be higher than false negatives?

      30 replies 0 retweets 55 likes
    3. drwhisky‏ @drwhisky1 20 Apr 2020
      Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @naval

      No, but given true positives are in the order of <10% false positives have a higher relative impact

      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    4. drwhisky‏ @drwhisky1 20 Apr 2020
      Replying to @drwhisky1 @ScottAdamsSays @naval

      if false positive rate is 2% and 1% of population had it then 3 out of 100 test positive. But only 1 of them really had it. 2% of false positives leads to error factor of 3. 2% of false negatives to error factor of 0.98!

      3 replies 2 retweets 18 likes
    5. This Tweet is unavailable.
      Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 20 Apr 2020
      Replying to @DeltaV_ @drwhisky1 @naval

      I wish I could believe unlabelled graphs in 2020.

      4:57 AM - 20 Apr 2020
      • 12 Likes
      • TheSoylentMajority 🧬 Cristo Benedit Harry Campbell 🇺🇸 David BOhn Kevin Watson Laudate Sole michael simitz thilas_der_thyriche_thittenchtrolch
      1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
        1. Omer Weissbrod‏ @oweissb 20 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @DeltaV_ and

          Omer Weissbrod Retweeted Taal Levi

          https://twitter.com/taaltree/status/1248467731545911296?s=19 …

          Omer Weissbrod added,

          Taal Levi @taaltree
          Antibody tests are coming online. Never before have humans needed to understand Bayes rule more. Let's talk about why it's critical NOT to assume you are immune to covid-19 when you have a positive antibody test. Seriously, people need to understand this to prevent many deaths.
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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