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ScottAdamsSays's profile
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
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@ScottAdamsSays

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Scott AdamsVerified account

@ScottAdamsSays

My Micro Lesson (2-4 min. videos) on being more happier and more effective in life are on Locals: http://bit.ly/2Ygv2tf 

Pleasanton CA
youtube.com/c/realCoffeeWi…
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    1. Naval‏ @naval 20 Apr 2020

      Recent serology studies may be wrong. But if wrong, they‘re all wrong *in the same direction.* Finnish: 20-50x undercount Scottish: 27-55x Stanford: 50-85x Italian: 30x Mass: 17x Germany: 0.37% CFR Denmark: 0.21% If true, COVID19 has much more spread and much lower fatality.

      125 replies 610 retweets 2,420 likes
      Show this thread
      Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 20 Apr 2020
      Replying to @naval

      Would false positives normally be higher than false negatives?

      3:55 AM - 20 Apr 2020
      • 55 Likes
      • Paulo Silveira raza ⟠ Science&politics portalnyc Sammy 🕷 One Perspective Hal Wayland timothy rice
      30 replies 0 retweets 55 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Mark Trent‏ @trentster 20 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @naval

          Yes.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Mark Trent‏ @trentster 20 Apr 2020
          Replying to @trentster @ScottAdamsSays @naval

          Or no.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. प्रबंधक‏ @ManagerSahb 20 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @naval

          True. Fatalities are also underreported.

          3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Naval‏ @naval 20 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ManagerSahb @ScottAdamsSays

          By much, much less.

          2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. drwhisky‏ @drwhisky1 20 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @naval

          No, but given true positives are in the order of <10% false positives have a higher relative impact

          2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
        3. drwhisky‏ @drwhisky1 20 Apr 2020
          Replying to @drwhisky1 @ScottAdamsSays @naval

          if false positive rate is 2% and 1% of population had it then 3 out of 100 test positive. But only 1 of them really had it. 2% of false positives leads to error factor of 3. 2% of false negatives to error factor of 0.98!

          3 replies 2 retweets 18 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Vlad‏ @vladpush 20 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @naval

          Yes. In such tests the sensitivity should be in faviour of minimizing false negatives. This means that the chances of false positives are higher.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Seng Merrill‏ @SengMerrill 20 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @naval

          What about the reports from Spain & Italy that many of the tests originated from CN had false negative by 70%?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Naval‏ @naval 20 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays

          Naval Retweeted drwhisky

          The impact will be higher. But they should calibrate for that. Did they all miscalibrate? Or did I miss a well calibrated serology study? https://twitter.com/drwhisky1/status/1252190723140714497?s=21 …https://twitter.com/drwhisky1/status/1252190723140714497 …

          Naval added,

          drwhisky @drwhisky1
          Replying to @drwhisky1 @ScottAdamsSays @naval
          if false positive rate is 2% and 1% of population had it then 3 out of 100 test positive. But only 1 of them really had it. 2% of false positives leads to error factor of 3. 2% of false negatives to error factor of 0.98!
          4 replies 0 retweets 35 likes
        3. Tytus Suski‏ @tytus_s 20 Apr 2020
          Replying to @naval @ScottAdamsSays

          but with what do you calibrate? Say if you have expensive very precise test, then you can calibrate a mass, cheap test. Then perform cheap test on large part of population. Is there a different, precise method to calibrate mass tests?

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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