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ScottAdamsSays's profile
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Verified account
@ScottAdamsSays

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Scott AdamsVerified account

@ScottAdamsSays

My Micro Lesson (2-4 min. videos) on being more happier and more effective in life are on Locals: http://bit.ly/2Ygv2tf 

Pleasanton CA
youtube.com/c/realCoffeeWi…
Joined October 2014

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    1. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 17 Apr 2020

      Thought experiment: Given that flattening the curve simply postpones infections as opposed to stopping them, should the places with the least current impact be trying to AVOID infections or trying to INCREASE infections to get herd immunity, short of crashing hospitals?

      494 replies 147 retweets 1,050 likes
    2. Devin Roesler‏ @Doc_Roesler 17 Apr 2020
      Replying to @ScottAdamsSays

      This is why the whole crush the curve or nuke the curve talk annoys me. We just prolong the inevitable. No matter how flat it gets the area of the curve stays the same. Not to mention, death protections should stay relatively constant if hospitals are not overwhelmed.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. Geoff Price‏ @geoffmprice 17 Apr 2020
      Replying to @Doc_Roesler @ScottAdamsSays

      I do not believe it is true that 'the area under the curve is always the same', i.e. that same total infection/death count is inevitable. This thread would benefit from insights from those who study this topic for a living.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Devin Roesler‏ @Doc_Roesler 17 Apr 2020
      Replying to @geoffmprice @ScottAdamsSays

      It is. We can't stop the infection from infecting x percent. It either happens slowly or faster. Now, that changes if a vaccine is developed or a cure discovered

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Geoff Price‏ @geoffmprice 17 Apr 2020
      Replying to @Doc_Roesler @ScottAdamsSays

      Geoff Price Retweeted Carl T. Bergstrom

      Have you checked for DKE-19 (or been social media distancing?) "The areas under curve should be the same, dumbass!" is apparently a common symptom...?https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241553620820099073 …

      Geoff Price added,

      Carl T. BergstromVerified account @CT_Bergstrom
      19. Next up a very, very basic fallacy about the effect of flattening the curve. Almost *any* reasonable epidemiological model you use, from SIR to all sorts of fancy spatial PDE or agent-based approaches, will show that decreasing transmission rate decreases total epidemic size. pic.twitter.com/kWjGl2sVhZ
      Show this thread
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Devin Roesler‏ @Doc_Roesler 17 Apr 2020
      Replying to @geoffmprice @ScottAdamsSays

      https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/the-doctor-who-helped-defeat-smallpox-explains-whats-coming/ … he specifically says flattening the curve won't reduce number of cases.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 17 Apr 2020
      Replying to @Doc_Roesler @geoffmprice

      But in the text he contradicts it by saying the flattening buys time until the vaccine.

      10:39 AM - 17 Apr 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Kevin Watson David
      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. Devin Roesler‏ @Doc_Roesler 17 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @geoffmprice

          That's true. And probably the only way flattening the curve actually leads to decrease in cases is a vaccine but absent a vaccine cases remain constant. I guess the question is, worth keep a very flat curve until a vaccine? Possibly 18 or 24 months? My hunch is no

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. ross mcdonnell‏ @ross_mc_donnell 17 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @Doc_Roesler @geoffmprice

          Because of the # of DEATHS and the flattening of curves over time in these well illustrated simulations.https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/ …

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Geoff Price‏ @geoffmprice 17 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ross_mc_donnell @ScottAdamsSays @Doc_Roesler

          Thanks for sharing. Not sure this explains long-term total exposure count factors. But this is in the neighborhood of what I was imagining might be a factor – when spread is slow enough (R0 effectively lowered?) can it run its course without infecting up to full 'herd immunity'?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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