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ScottAdamsSays's profile
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
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@ScottAdamsSays

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Scott AdamsVerified account

@ScottAdamsSays

My Micro Lesson (2-4 min. videos) on being more happier and more effective in life are on Locals: http://bit.ly/2Ygv2tf 

Pleasanton CA
youtube.com/c/realCoffeeWi…
Joined October 2014

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    1. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 Mar 2020

      10. I hate to ascribe to malice what can be adequately explained by incompetence, but using this lie to sweep away the disaggregated data is such utter nonsense that I wonder how a silicon valley guy could make this claim by mistake.

      51 replies 242 retweets 3,255 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 Mar 2020

      11. Then there's the bell curve business. If Hernstein and Murray gave the term a bad name, Ginn says "hold my beer". Most things in nature follow a bell curve, so viruses do too? Not science exactly. And do most things? What about log-normals? Exponentials? Etc etc etc.pic.twitter.com/D21jHAQ7s6

      55 replies 143 retweets 2,367 likes
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    3. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 Mar 2020

      12. But that's not the worst part. We have literally over a century's history of mathematical modeling epidemic progression. Some look somewhat bell-like. Others don't. It depends on the circumstances, details of the virus, behavior of the population, interventions, etc.

      18 replies 141 retweets 2,476 likes
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    4. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 Mar 2020

      13. [pause to take beta-blockers]

      22 replies 73 retweets 2,919 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 Mar 2020

      14. This is unsubstantiated bullshit. IF the bell-curve were a "law of nature", it shouldn't necessarily apply to the vast range of human responses that people take to stop epidemics. Yet this assertion is supported with data from places where interventions slowed things down.pic.twitter.com/ASrkdKzj6p

      25 replies 150 retweets 2,101 likes
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    6. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 Mar 2020

      15. Wait, are already breaking the data down by country? We were cautioned against that as being misleading just a few paragraphs ago!

      8 replies 77 retweets 1,937 likes
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    7. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 Mar 2020

      16. Ah, Farr's law. I don't know how the author could have more effectively discredited himself to the epidemiology community with any two other words. It's an old rule-of-thumb that suggests epidemics take a bell-curve shape. BUT....pic.twitter.com/QOWxeUzQmT

      6 replies 96 retweets 1,593 likes
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    8. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 Mar 2020

      17. When I teach ID epidemiology OR data science, I tend to have my students read this 1990 paper as a cautionary tail against non-mechanistic modeling. http://documents.aidswiki.net/PHDDC/BREG.PDF  It uses Farr's law to predict the size of the HIV epidemic.pic.twitter.com/3dKhSuiMQG

      15 replies 198 retweets 2,056 likes
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    9. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 Mar 2020

      18. The authors conclude that the HIV epidemic will encompass roughly 200,000 cases before fading away in the mid 1990s. This graph is from the original paper. You can't make this shit up.pic.twitter.com/RogE3sISuC

      23 replies 163 retweets 2,198 likes
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    10. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 Mar 2020

      19. Next up a very, very basic fallacy about the effect of flattening the curve. Almost *any* reasonable epidemiological model you use, from SIR to all sorts of fancy spatial PDE or agent-based approaches, will show that decreasing transmission rate decreases total epidemic size.pic.twitter.com/kWjGl2sVhZ

      22 replies 145 retweets 1,762 likes
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      Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 17 Apr 2020
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom

      Why would flattening the curve decrease total epidemic size? It makes sense that this would be the case with normal flu because of vaccinations and herd immunity. Neither of those apply to CV-19, and this virus is extra viral.

      10:32 AM - 17 Apr 2020
      • 4 Likes
      • Kevin Watson Nedjyne Frederico Liporace Khan Muhammad Wazir
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. Chandais‏ @Chandais1 17 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @CT_Bergstrom

          Because of what "rate" means.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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