If you are surprised that a complex prediction model did not accurately predict the future, the problem is on your end. Why did you ever think that was a thing?
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Well now it seems what is needed is a way to “unring” the fear bell. Scott, live stream that one for how to persuade the public to business as usual?? Please.
End of conversation
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As in Florida hurricane season...lots of models pointing on all directions. We basically ignore the models, pray & go about our business getting as prepared as possible, regardless.
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2.5 million dead was if we did nothing. We did not do nothing. Actual deaths are tracking to be in the neighborhood of 100k, which is close to what the models predicted with social distancing. Not exactly, but its a complex system.
End of conversation
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Well in this case, pretty soon the public is going to learn models are nothing but pure science fiction, and there goes their one and only "usable" characteristic, ie persuasiveness. Can't wait.
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