If you are surprised that a complex prediction model did not accurately predict the future, the problem is on your end. Why did you ever think that was a thing?
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Except the variance on the risk metrics make any estimate on upper/lower bound basically worthless.
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Instead of any numeric prediction, the model should just return the word “PANIC!"
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BS lies.
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How useful are sizing models used to try on lingerie in all sizes 0 - 14?
End of conversation
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Modeler is in park lot at baseball park
He bats a ball
I expect it to land inside the park and best inside white base lines. Agenda driven WHO and billion
vaccine giant CDC are always going to bat ball into street traffic
Their intended boundries not good for humanity
End of conversation
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Models should be useful for sizing risks. This model was not useful at all. That’s the problem, not that it wasn’t accurate.
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You don’t need to spend money developing a model to find out what “could” happen. Anything “could” happen In this case, a model was used to lend (supposed) credibility to justify extreme gov action. It’s still implied that the dire predictions were avoided by actions taken
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literally any idiot off the street can make predictions about what COULD happen. we should absolutely expect models from the supposed experts - which are relied upon to dictate policy - to be more reliable than 'well it COULD have happened'
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