When educated people say, "See, the shutdown worked", I laugh.
How can you say that without data? It may or may not have. No judgement.
But in marketing, you are always doing A/B testing. In this pandemic, we had only A. So, no, you can't arrive at "it worked."
@ScottAdamsSays
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Sweden is taking the “no-lockdown” approach I believe. Norway and Sweden could be a comparison
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What’s Sweden’s death rate look like?
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Well when this is over and we need an economic development thinker we'll give you a call. Right now we're looking for a stayin' alive thinker.
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A screw driver handle works to hammer in a nail but it’s not a hammer
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Or how it worked relative to any number of alternatives.
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Well, that's the rub. If it helped by 7% improvement/mitigation then the valid question is "was it worth it?". If it helped by 50% then the simple answer is yes.
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I don't see how any deaths were "prevented." Isolation keeps vulnerable people safe temporarily and cuts the number who need hospitalization today. But if you are vulnerable today, you're vulnerable as soon as you leave isolation. The number of deaths will eventually be the same.
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I don't think that's true. You're buying time.
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Define "works". It prevented an overrun of our hospitals, possibly, but it has also devastated the economy. The real question we should be asking is "Is there a better way?" because that will inform future decisions. I don't see anyone asking the question.
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