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ScottAdamsSays's profile
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
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@ScottAdamsSays

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Scott AdamsVerified account

@ScottAdamsSays

My Micro Lesson (2-4 min. videos) on being more happier and more effective in life are on Locals: http://bit.ly/2Ygv2tf 

Pleasanton CA
youtube.com/c/realCoffeeWi…
Joined October 2014

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    1. Adam Townsend‏ @adamscrabble 14 Apr 2020

      Adam Townsend Retweeted Scott Adams

      🔥Thread, Covid-19: May we first go about resolving its ambiguities? First as to what constitutes covid-19 death? Principle of infectiology requires causal chain "Suspected without being tested" = assuming large % of pop infected, deaths "due" to Covid-19 = +/- overall death ratehttps://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1250194403789963264 …

      Adam Townsend added,

      Scott AdamsVerified account @ScottAdamsSays
      Replying to @adamscrabble
      What level of #coronavirus deaths in the US (even assuming some miscoded) would convince you the experts were right in the size of the risk?
      4 replies 19 retweets 85 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Adam Townsend‏ @adamscrabble 14 Apr 2020

      Your reasonable question is absent a definition of "experts" There has been little agmt as to what qualifies an expert, nor have experts agreed w/each other. Lee, Ioannidis, Katz, Montgomery = all eminent, are experts who felt strongly risks did not warrant the measures taken

      2 replies 4 retweets 46 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Adam Townsend‏ @adamscrabble 14 Apr 2020

      Neil Ferguson's un-peer reviewed and un-interrogated model that first informed the shutdown has been revised much lower and clarifiying that +/50% would have died by the end of the year they were old/sick. Accordingly, CDC and others have commensurately lowered projections,

      3 replies 15 retweets 66 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Adam Townsend‏ @adamscrabble 14 Apr 2020

      You wrote "size of the risk", this immediately puts the burden of proof is on me to demonstrate to a certainty that social distancing was not the only possible cause of the significant lesser deaths from coronavirus?

      2 replies 1 retweet 29 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Adam Townsend‏ @adamscrabble 14 Apr 2020

      At what place in the pool are you asking me to dive in? At the deep end, 2.2 million projected deaths, or where we find ourselves now, in shallow water, at perhaps 10% of that number?

      1 reply 1 retweet 25 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Adam Townsend‏ @adamscrabble 14 Apr 2020

      If you propose the deep end, then had the world ever been trending in deaths at that rate in an environment outside of Italy and in a population with less infirmities, i would have found the experts more credible and their recommended policies more persuasive

      1 reply 1 retweet 28 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Adam Townsend‏ @adamscrabble 14 Apr 2020

      We also have not defined a time frame. The end of June, July, 2020, 2023? You question puts me in a position that I must argue "death", and you are on the virtuous side of arguing "life". What kind of monster I am to wish illness on anyone? Life is obviously desirable

      1 reply 3 retweets 42 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Adam Townsend‏ @adamscrabble 14 Apr 2020

      "some miscoded" challenge is accepted. imprecision of assigning cause of death is not uncommon, but surely for virus that has caused so much economic damage and loss of life requires more rigorous inspection, does it not? But i have have accepted the terms.

      1 reply 3 retweets 31 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Adam Townsend‏ @adamscrabble 14 Apr 2020

      As it stands now, without any hypothecating as to the beneficence or maleficence of the societal intervention and with tolerating some "miscoding".., At 200,000 deaths i would accept that the experts you abided were correct

      4 replies 2 retweets 29 likes
      Show this thread
      Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 14 Apr 2020
      Replying to @adamscrabble

      Oh, I missed the 200,000 on the first read. That seems reasonable. Although we will never know how much the mitigation changed things.

      9:02 PM - 14 Apr 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 5 Likes
      • Qa'a - 2910 BC Pharoah Adam Townsend andrew Louie Lozano
      7 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
        1. Beto Ochoa‏ @Beto_In_Austin 14 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @adamscrabble

          People will be mitigating for the rest of this generation at least. And requiring anti psychotic medication. Invest in disposable glove manufacturing.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Congressman Fartwell‏ @CongFartwell 14 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @adamscrabble

          That's the beauty of the projections. If they predict 200k and it comes in lower they can just say that we all did a great job.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Craig Strange‏ @strange_au 14 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @adamscrabble

          Dr Brix said 100,000 to 200,000 even if things were done perfectly...

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. CDB‏ @quietnolonger 14 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @adamscrabble

          Check Sweden.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. PB Firearms‏ @FirearmsPB 14 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @adamscrabble

          The model is that infections are constant regardless of mitigation. The integral of the Gaussian is constant. Mitigation saves lives by reducing saturation. The key to evaluating the models is comparing unsaturated vs. saturated populations and comparing death and infection rates

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. THX57482924‏ @THX585 15 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @adamscrabble

          This article has a model made on Apr 6 that still held on Apr 13, and includes python code so anyone can check the math. Predicts 180k deaths in the US, 75 day duration, mortality of 0.045%, mitigation makes less difference than perhaps thought: https://medium.com/@ali_razavian/covid-19-from-a-data-scientists-perspective-95bd4e84843b … Thoughts?

          0 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
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        1. Marcia Goldstein‏ @robbiemay33 15 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @adamscrabble

          I don’t agree. Kinsa info good guide.https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/23/kinsas-fever-map-could-show-just-how-crucial-it-is-to-stay-home-to-stop-covid-19-spread/ …

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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