Thread, Covid-19: May we first go about resolving its ambiguities?
First as to what constitutes covid-19 death? Principle of infectiology requires causal chain
"Suspected without being tested" = assuming large % of pop infected, deaths "due" to Covid-19 = +/- overall death ratehttps://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1250194403789963264 …
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People will be mitigating for the rest of this generation at least. And requiring anti psychotic medication. Invest in disposable glove manufacturing.
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That's the beauty of the projections. If they predict 200k and it comes in lower they can just say that we all did a great job.
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Dr Brix said 100,000 to 200,000 even if things were done perfectly...
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Check Sweden.
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The model is that infections are constant regardless of mitigation. The integral of the Gaussian is constant. Mitigation saves lives by reducing saturation. The key to evaluating the models is comparing unsaturated vs. saturated populations and comparing death and infection rates
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This article has a model made on Apr 6 that still held on Apr 13, and includes python code so anyone can check the math. Predicts 180k deaths in the US, 75 day duration, mortality of 0.045%, mitigation makes less difference than perhaps thought: https://medium.com/@ali_razavian/covid-19-from-a-data-scientists-perspective-95bd4e84843b … Thoughts?
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