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ScottAdamsSays's profile
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
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@ScottAdamsSays

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Scott AdamsVerified account

@ScottAdamsSays

My Micro Lesson (2-4 min. videos) on being more happier and more effective in life are on Locals: http://bit.ly/2Ygv2tf 

Pleasanton CA
youtube.com/c/realCoffeeWi…
Joined October 2014

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    1. Adam Townsend‏ @adamscrabble 14 Apr 2020

      Adam Townsend Retweeted Scott Adams

      🔥Thread, Covid-19: May we first go about resolving its ambiguities? First as to what constitutes covid-19 death? Principle of infectiology requires causal chain "Suspected without being tested" = assuming large % of pop infected, deaths "due" to Covid-19 = +/- overall death ratehttps://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1250194403789963264 …

      Adam Townsend added,

      Scott AdamsVerified account @ScottAdamsSays
      Replying to @adamscrabble
      What level of #coronavirus deaths in the US (even assuming some miscoded) would convince you the experts were right in the size of the risk?
      4 replies 19 retweets 85 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Adam Townsend‏ @adamscrabble 14 Apr 2020

      Your reasonable question is absent a definition of "experts" There has been little agmt as to what qualifies an expert, nor have experts agreed w/each other. Lee, Ioannidis, Katz, Montgomery = all eminent, are experts who felt strongly risks did not warrant the measures taken

      2 replies 4 retweets 46 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Adam Townsend‏ @adamscrabble 14 Apr 2020

      Neil Ferguson's un-peer reviewed and un-interrogated model that first informed the shutdown has been revised much lower and clarifiying that +/50% would have died by the end of the year they were old/sick. Accordingly, CDC and others have commensurately lowered projections,

      3 replies 15 retweets 66 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Adam Townsend‏ @adamscrabble 14 Apr 2020

      You wrote "size of the risk", this immediately puts the burden of proof is on me to demonstrate to a certainty that social distancing was not the only possible cause of the significant lesser deaths from coronavirus?

      2 replies 1 retweet 29 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Adam Townsend‏ @adamscrabble 14 Apr 2020

      At what place in the pool are you asking me to dive in? At the deep end, 2.2 million projected deaths, or where we find ourselves now, in shallow water, at perhaps 10% of that number?

      1 reply 1 retweet 25 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Adam Townsend‏ @adamscrabble 14 Apr 2020

      If you propose the deep end, then had the world ever been trending in deaths at that rate in an environment outside of Italy and in a population with less infirmities, i would have found the experts more credible and their recommended policies more persuasive

      1 reply 1 retweet 28 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Adam Townsend‏ @adamscrabble 14 Apr 2020

      We also have not defined a time frame. The end of June, July, 2020, 2023? You question puts me in a position that I must argue "death", and you are on the virtuous side of arguing "life". What kind of monster I am to wish illness on anyone? Life is obviously desirable

      1 reply 3 retweets 42 likes
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    8. Adam Townsend‏ @adamscrabble 14 Apr 2020

      "some miscoded" challenge is accepted. imprecision of assigning cause of death is not uncommon, but surely for virus that has caused so much economic damage and loss of life requires more rigorous inspection, does it not? But i have have accepted the terms.

      1 reply 3 retweets 31 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Adam Townsend‏ @adamscrabble 14 Apr 2020

      As it stands now, without any hypothecating as to the beneficence or maleficence of the societal intervention and with tolerating some "miscoding".., At 200,000 deaths i would accept that the experts you abided were correct

      4 replies 2 retweets 29 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Adam Townsend‏ @adamscrabble 14 Apr 2020

      What level of #coronavirus deaths in the US (even assuming some miscoded) would convince you the experts were wrong in the size of the risk? /end But wait, there's more. Me as a toddler on our pianopic.twitter.com/YWTWiGwety

      13 replies 6 retweets 55 likes
      Show this thread
      Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 14 Apr 2020
      Replying to @adamscrabble

      Is the summary that there will never be a way to know after the fact if the dire warnings and thus the reactions were overdone? Likewise, we will never know if the mitigation worked extra-good or the models were extra bad.

      6:59 PM - 14 Apr 2020
      • 2 Retweets
      • 14 Likes
      • JCSM andrew Lisa Marie 🇨🇦🗣 Roy Dodd Kevin Watson Batmantis Terry Kinder Rod Laurenz
      15 replies 2 retweets 14 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. CeeWade the Mayor‏ @CeeWadeTheMayor 14 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @adamscrabble

          Well, when did that ever stop the experts?🤷🏻‍♂️

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. This Tweet is unavailable.
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        1. Terry  🧡 🧡 🧡‏ @tssunlvr 14 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @adamscrabble

          You never know what info will come out...stranger things have happened.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Livestock Complacency‏ @lvstckcmplcncy 14 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @adamscrabble

          Would "how it comes back" help answer some questions? Just musing. Seems like a fair question. But maybe not.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Ben  🎙️‏ @Benmsx 14 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @adamscrabble

          Think We will know but such knowledge will be discredited & hole-picked.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Leigh Roberts‏ @LMR0001 14 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @adamscrabble

          this is why NNT's thinking in this space is so appealing. He rejects the models too. His idea is simple [YOU CAN'T PREDICT]. In the face of opacity where the impacts are large...act with precaution. Its really not hard.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. L‏ @_futurezeus_ 14 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @adamscrabble

          I believe the summary is 200,000 including those miscoded. If less, the likelihood that experts were wrong outweighs the likelihood that preventions saved 2 million + lives. If I read Adam correctly.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Adam Townsend‏ @adamscrabble 14 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays

          What you've offered me as a summary presupposes that i'm willing to accept a bifurcation, I am not. I do not feel my addressing the ambiguity of your question lacked forthrightness or imprecision

          2 replies 1 retweet 16 likes
        3. This Tweet is unavailable.
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        1. Miss Havisham‏ @MissHavisham10 14 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @adamscrabble

          No the reaction wasn't overdone. According to CDC data, a very bad flu (eg 2017-2018) had a peak week with 1600 deaths in U.S. A peak week of Coronavirus will have 13,000 deaths in U.S. WITH a global shutdown. It's massive and terrible in its devastation in that short a time.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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