Funny u say that now. We were told w 100% certainty that such & such would happen if we did not act immediately, & all policy action was based on models. Not only that, we who stood up to "expert modeling consensus" were relentlessly attacked as "deniers." https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1248610181597900803?s=20 …
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I guess my company should scrap our inventory forecasting model which has an adjusted r squared of .92. I will tell them Scott Adams says it is not useful in predicting the future. Should be a fun discussion.
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Your company has probably been forecasting inventory for many years & is really good at it. And when they started forecasting; may have implemented some of the recommendations slowly & via small proof of concepts; instead of the Big Bang approach with the new COVID-19 models.
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Caveats don't matter, the info used to compel the destruction of 20 million lives better be right. If we had seen this before (taking NYC subways still being open into account) there is no way America would have accepted the price.
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If you put time on the x axis, yes, you're predicting the future.
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Seems sensible that a model cant adequately forecast a future with any sort of precision, particularly if the key variable is human behavior. You are talking about a seemingly endless stream of counter factuals to account for.
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If models don’t model (predict) the future reasonably well what good are they???
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Scott, I'd appreciate it if you'd bound the definition of model. There are models that are accurate/predictive such as for physical or logical processes. i.e. models for resistors are quite accurate for predicting the current flow given V diff.
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