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ScottAdamsSays's profile
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
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@ScottAdamsSays

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Scott AdamsVerified account

@ScottAdamsSays

My Micro Lesson (2-4 min. videos) on being more happier and more effective in life are on Locals: http://bit.ly/2Ygv2tf 

Pleasanton CA
youtube.com/c/realCoffeeWi…
Joined October 2014

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    1. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020

      The public generally doesn't understand the point of prediction models. They are not intended to predict the future. No model can do that. No human can do that. It is not a thing.

      98 replies 31 retweets 222 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020

      When you say, "That model is wrong because it did not accurately predict the future," you are talking nonsense. You are saying a bicycle is defective because it can't fly. Models are not intended to show you the future. Bikes are not intended to fly.

      30 replies 21 retweets 166 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020

      My critics will say, "Hey, you always say analogies can't persuade! What's up with that?" And then I say, "Did it persuade you?" Then they say no. Then I say, "See?"

      5 replies 9 retweets 149 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020

      Analogies can sometimes teach a point. The point here is that you can't rationally judge the effectiveness of a thing if you don't know what it was designed to do in the first place. And models are not designed to be "right."

      10 replies 15 retweets 145 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020

      If anyone could create a complex model with lots of sensitive variables that could predict the future -- of anything -- during the fog of war period of a new challenge, that person would be a trillionaire by now. No one can do that. No model can do that. It isn't a thing.

      13 replies 31 retweets 194 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020

      What models CAN do for you is show the potential size of a problem and persuade non-experts that it is worth fixing. The #coronavirus models did just that. If there was an award for "best prediction model of all time," the #coronavirus models would be contenders.

      30 replies 34 retweets 190 likes
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    7. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020

      The lower bounds of the models said 100K deaths but now have been revised to 60K. That's a 40% change! Terrible models! Fire everyone involved! Right?

      19 replies 18 retweets 121 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020

      Keep in mind the models had a range from 100K at the low end, with mitigation, to over 1 million without. If the actual death toll comes in at 140K with mitigation, would you say the models were wrong or right? I think you would say they were damned good.

      23 replies 17 retweets 145 likes
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    9. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020

      But if we miss the bottom estimate by exactly the same amount on the low side, and the final tally is 60K dead, you call that a gross miss. Yet it would be a miss by exactly as much as the 140K, only in the other direction.

      18 replies 13 retweets 161 likes
      Show this thread
    10. ac130spectre‏ @spectre_151 10 Apr 2020
      Replying to @ScottAdamsSays

      As always, we have to question the utility of a model that has over an order of magnitude of variation from a planning standpoint.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020
      Replying to @spectre_151

      It doesn't. The high end is without mitigation. Low end is with. That is not a large range.

      8:16 AM - 10 Apr 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Neurotic Quixotic, Esqueer, DhP Matthew Aicklen
      0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        2. ac130spectre‏ @spectre_151 10 Apr 2020

          The data seems to indicate poor outcomes for younger healthy people as well. FWIW.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. End of conversation

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