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ScottAdamsSays's profile
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Verified account
@ScottAdamsSays

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Scott AdamsVerified account

@ScottAdamsSays

My Micro Lesson (2-4 min. videos) on being more happier and more effective in life are on Locals: http://bit.ly/2Ygv2tf 

Pleasanton CA
youtube.com/c/realCoffeeWi…
Joined October 2014

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    1. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020

      Thought experiment: If a bicycle cannot fly, is it a defective bicycle?

      268 replies 111 retweets 621 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020

      I only ask because virus prediction models are being called defective based on the fact they do not accurately predict the future.

      62 replies 20 retweets 166 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020

      The public generally doesn't understand the point of prediction models. They are not intended to predict the future. No model can do that. No human can do that. It is not a thing.

      98 replies 31 retweets 222 likes
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    4. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020

      When you say, "That model is wrong because it did not accurately predict the future," you are talking nonsense. You are saying a bicycle is defective because it can't fly. Models are not intended to show you the future. Bikes are not intended to fly.

      30 replies 21 retweets 166 likes
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    5. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020

      My critics will say, "Hey, you always say analogies can't persuade! What's up with that?" And then I say, "Did it persuade you?" Then they say no. Then I say, "See?"

      5 replies 9 retweets 149 likes
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    6. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020

      Analogies can sometimes teach a point. The point here is that you can't rationally judge the effectiveness of a thing if you don't know what it was designed to do in the first place. And models are not designed to be "right."

      10 replies 15 retweets 145 likes
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    7. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020

      If anyone could create a complex model with lots of sensitive variables that could predict the future -- of anything -- during the fog of war period of a new challenge, that person would be a trillionaire by now. No one can do that. No model can do that. It isn't a thing.

      13 replies 31 retweets 194 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020

      What models CAN do for you is show the potential size of a problem and persuade non-experts that it is worth fixing. The #coronavirus models did just that. If there was an award for "best prediction model of all time," the #coronavirus models would be contenders.

      30 replies 34 retweets 190 likes
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    9. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020

      The lower bounds of the models said 100K deaths but now have been revised to 60K. That's a 40% change! Terrible models! Fire everyone involved! Right?

      19 replies 18 retweets 121 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020

      Keep in mind the models had a range from 100K at the low end, with mitigation, to over 1 million without. If the actual death toll comes in at 140K with mitigation, would you say the models were wrong or right? I think you would say they were damned good.

      23 replies 17 retweets 145 likes
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      Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020

      But if we miss the bottom estimate by exactly the same amount on the low side, and the final tally is 60K dead, you call that a gross miss. Yet it would be a miss by exactly as much as the 140K, only in the other direction.

      6:54 AM - 10 Apr 2020
      • 13 Retweets
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      18 replies 13 retweets 161 likes
        1. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020

          I contend there is an illusion here that is skewing opinions. If you compare the revised 60K estimate to 100K, it looks like a big difference. But if you consider the range of uncertainty was 900K, depending on mitigation, then 60K and 100K are in the same ballpark.

          143 replies 30 retweets 276 likes
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        1. Mariann Rhodes‏ @Slowpoke2009 10 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays

          https://londonreal.tv/the-coronavirus-conspiracy-how-covid-19-will-seize-your-rights-destroy-our-economy-david-icke/ …

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. ac130spectre‏ @spectre_151 10 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays

          As always, we have to question the utility of a model that has over an order of magnitude of variation from a planning standpoint.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020
          Replying to @spectre_151

          It doesn't. The high end is without mitigation. Low end is with. That is not a large range.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
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        2. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 10 Apr 2020
          Replying to @A9Felix

          If you expect to get a penny but get two cents instead, were you approximately correct or 100% wrong?

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. End of conversation
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        2. President Susan Rice, Patrick 🇺🇸  🎹  🇨🇮 🖋 🇺🇸‏ @pianoman817 10 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays

          We don’t even know the real number of deaths from Covid because it’s acknowledged they’re playing fast and loose on COD and hospitals have been incentivized to record deaths as Covid.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. MegaCanuck‏ @megacanuck 10 Apr 2020
          Replying to @pianoman817 @ScottAdamsSays

          Proof pls.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Not Cubby - SuperStraight, SuperPride‏ @NotCubby 10 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays

          By your reasoning, 0 deaths would be as wide of the mark as 200K, I.e., total failure on the low end would be equally as bad as doubling the estimate. I think the proper “equally wrong” upper bound would be 100K/60% or 167K. Thoughts?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. The BobFather‏ @practicalbob 10 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays

          500,000 people per year die from AIDs.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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