Thought experiment: If a bicycle cannot fly, is it a defective bicycle?
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I contend there is an illusion here that is skewing opinions. If you compare the revised 60K estimate to 100K, it looks like a big difference. But if you consider the range of uncertainty was 900K, depending on mitigation, then 60K and 100K are in the same ballpark.
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As always, we have to question the utility of a model that has over an order of magnitude of variation from a planning standpoint.
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It doesn't. The high end is without mitigation. Low end is with. That is not a large range.
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If you expect to get a penny but get two cents instead, were you approximately correct or 100% wrong?
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We don’t even know the real number of deaths from Covid because it’s acknowledged they’re playing fast and loose on COD and hospitals have been incentivized to record deaths as Covid.
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Proof pls.
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By your reasoning, 0 deaths would be as wide of the mark as 200K, I.e., total failure on the low end would be equally as bad as doubling the estimate. I think the proper “equally wrong” upper bound would be 100K/60% or 167K. Thoughts?
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500,000 people per year die from AIDs.
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