Thought experiment: If a bicycle cannot fly, is it a defective bicycle?
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But if we miss the bottom estimate by exactly the same amount on the low side, and the final tally is 60K dead, you call that a gross miss. Yet it would be a miss by exactly as much as the 140K, only in the other direction.
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I contend there is an illusion here that is skewing opinions. If you compare the revised 60K estimate to 100K, it looks like a big difference. But if you consider the range of uncertainty was 900K, depending on mitigation, then 60K and 100K are in the same ballpark.
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I'm starting to think that the computer model's there using are the same ones the weather men use!
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Why is it the average American knew from the beginning this was all hype to tear down the economy but tried to play along out of respect but all the experts said it was dooms day. I say lay off Congress and the senate and send them $1200 checks
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I would say they were not very useful. The rage is too large to formulate any sort of strategic or tactical countermeasures. Pick any point in the range and all we come up with is social distancing.
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I think I would say that when: a) dealing with a novel virus about which we have little-to-no information and b) new information is constantly being produced and published then c) models will shift accordingly over time. It doesn't mean the process is wrong, it means evolution.
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I would say they were wrong because their initial assumptions and preliminary studies were faulty at best. Their predictions are even more faulty because their projecting NYC as if it represents the rest of the country
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In your example, the model was RIGHT. However, the model is worthless. Any model that has a huge range is likely to be “right”. Appropriate responses cannot be determined from models like this. A model like this is basically a statistician’s way of making a WILD-ASS GUESS
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I don’t know, the guy from PLATOON or whatever says the books are cooked and the math doesn’t check out.
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