Thought experiment: If a bicycle cannot fly, is it a defective bicycle?
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The lower bounds of the models said 100K deaths but now have been revised to 60K. That's a 40% change! Terrible models! Fire everyone involved! Right?
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Keep in mind the models had a range from 100K at the low end, with mitigation, to over 1 million without. If the actual death toll comes in at 140K with mitigation, would you say the models were wrong or right? I think you would say they were damned good.
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But if we miss the bottom estimate by exactly the same amount on the low side, and the final tally is 60K dead, you call that a gross miss. Yet it would be a miss by exactly as much as the 140K, only in the other direction.
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I contend there is an illusion here that is skewing opinions. If you compare the revised 60K estimate to 100K, it looks like a big difference. But if you consider the range of uncertainty was 900K, depending on mitigation, then 60K and 100K are in the same ballpark.
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End of conversation
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Doesn’t that incentivize them to inflate the numbers dishonestly for persuasion sake? (I don’t think they did that, I just think they overly relied on NYC.)
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All models are wrong, but some are useful. The Imperial College one is definitely the former but not the latter.
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The problem is not the models, per se, it is the morons in the media pounding the tables and citing them as absolute fact. Then they are extremely dangerous.
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By “persuade” do you mean “put the fear of God in people” and make them do what they’re told
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Exactly what the climate models have been used for.
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So the models are bullshit, but if they convince people to accept governmental measures, then that's okay? Given how, like statistics, you can get a model to say whatever you want, that is extremely worrying.
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