NYC is 2.6% of the population of the United States and they have 7,076 #coronavirus deaths so far. If the rest of the country were no more successful at avoiding deaths than NYC, what would be the national death toll?
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If they are not made to be right, why even bother? What's the point?
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In a pandemic situation, a model is used to help understand and then mitigate the situation. No one who is modeling this pandemic is hoping that their model is *akshully* correct. The goal is to avoid the model outcome by taking the proper steps.
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