Prediction models are built to persuade the public toward expert consensus. They are not snapshots of the future. Debating the accuracy of models misses the point of them. #coronavirus
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So far, and I am going by media accounts, they've been primarily relying on the same two models, which have been consistently over-estimating the mortality rates by factors of 5 to 20. IHME is the only one where we know variables and they did factor in distancing. Still inflated.
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Let's kick the black sheep out of the herd. When he wins the Nobel prize we will pretend we were black all along.
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On the flip side, since the experts were relying on these 2 models, Trump can say he saved "2 million-plus lives" by enacting measures. The campaign ads will write themselves - as long as he doesn't mention ratings - better to say 8.5 million people watch daily for updated info.
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Scott, the only models worth anything are the ones that go AGAINST the consensus. No one ever made money betting on the consensus.
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An objectively false statement. The UN IPCC averages ~100 models with widely varying forecasts to make their temp projection. The low end forecasts & high end forecasts are OUTSIDE OF EACH OTHER'S ERROR BANDS, yet all 100 models are held in EQUALLY GOOD STANDING by the IPCC.
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And notice how the corona model fiasco has reached its "hide the decline" phase wherein we pad the corona body count to save the models further embarrassment. It won't work, because the unemployed staring into the abyss are not going to be "persuaded" by clever doubletalk.
End of conversation
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Your Twitter patience is leveling up
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