Prediction models are built to persuade the public toward expert consensus. They are not snapshots of the future. Debating the accuracy of models misses the point of them. #coronavirus
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Sounds like an echo chamber.
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Perfectly stated.
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I'm sorry but if models are meant to devise consensus, that's all the more reason why they should be scrutinized.
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It worked.. Everything's closed.
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Agree completely. And I have done them for a living.
End of conversation
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Scott, anyone who has spent more than 10min’s on Wall Street knows that when someone shows up claiming to predict the future based on the results of his ‘model’, you run, don’t walk, run in the opposite direction.
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Think of the models as the "Biden beats Trump" suppression polls on CNN. Makes more sense now?
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Yea, sure, me too. But those projections always included all the assumptions that went into the model. I never did a model specifically for persuasion, but rather to inform decision makers. A difference I think.
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