Prediction models are not designed to be accurate. They are designed to be useful. If you don't understand that distinction, nothing you say about the models moves the ball forward.https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1248227406218956800 …
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Nope, that’s exactly what confidence levels are supposed to do, show certainty.
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Then we shouldn’t be basing policy on them.
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1/2 Scott I’m a big fan and watch all ur periscopes live or on you tube but I have to disagree. When models are used to drive policy they have a tremendous impact. This is no different then the climate models that predicted doom by 2006 etc. This one cost the economy trillions.
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2/2 these models created widespread fear and panic that led to economic shut down and cost taxpayers trillions in income and revenue. I see this as a TEST RUN for the big argument to come for a huge green new deal realignment.
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It's not a confidence interval if there's no confidence. You need to say you don't know if you don't know.
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Ergo, the models “mean nothing”, right?
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But with these unknowns, you say that it would have been 99% worse without scaring everyone. I’m not seeing any hard data or logic there.
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