Prediction models are not designed to be accurate. They are designed to be useful. If you don't understand that distinction, nothing you say about the models moves the ball forward.https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1248227406218956800 …
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You have no data to make that case. Significant numbers of Americans started self-quarantining before governmental organizations gave the recommendations or enforced orders. They didn't need the government in order to assess risk, and won't in the future either.
End of conversation
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Wrong. The models included best case scenarios. This isnt fodder for periscope chats to most people.
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So....a model that is intentionally "scary" is useful.....only perhaps to manipulate behavior, right? Are you saying that the models were intentionally wrong? If so, fine. But shouldn't people be aware of that?
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Are you saying it doesn’t matter if the models Government uses are accurate because their purpose is to scare people in to desired behavior? That does not fit my narrative of a free society.
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They were directionally accurate. 60K deaths with 90% of the country under stay at home orders is still a lot.
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Good point
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Did you just say that the models don’t need to be accurate as long as they can be used to scare people into doing what the govt wants them to do?
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Ultimately, models say exactly what the person crafting them wants them to say. Stats 101pic.twitter.com/x8SY71tmZI
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