Sip and learn.https://www.pscp.tv/w/cVc5ETExODgwMjU5fDFncUd2RU92QmduS0IcF9CTRcf2LekTvPp5zJd6cKbKPOkGI1PukhRQ9wRQSw== …
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Replying to @JLS_1080
I'm blocking all the idiots who misremember my prediction and tell me it was wrong. The prediction is 5K net deaths. We are, so far, still negative because of fewer traffic accidents, etc.
33 replies 6 retweets 201 likes -
Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @JLS_1080
Scott I think *gross* US COVID deaths is much better metric, or else net QALYs Preventing people from doing things that they value more than a small chance of dying should be analyzed as net *negative*, and we shouldn’t think of it as diminishing the badness of COVID in any way
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That doesn't sound sensible at all. It's all connected.
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Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @JLS_1080
If it's all connected then you want net QALYs, which gives the US points if it lets people do things like drive which they want to do enough that they're willing to risk some chance of death for it. Under that analysis, the US is down more than 5,000 deaths worth of QALYs.
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Too subjective to really measure, but fine in concept.
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Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @JLS_1080
Instructive example: Say the government bans scuba diving for questionable reasons that might not even be COVID-related. Tons of net pleasure QALYs get destroyed, but net deaths metric is lowered by 100/yr, and falsely looks like US is having a more successful fight against COVID
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
Can't compare how happy you are to how happy you expected to be. That's just imagination. But you can count average death counts in one year versus another.
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Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @JLS_1080
Hmm, does this logic apply to my scuba diving example? You'd support a scuba diving ban because the death statistic of scuba diving is more reliable than the fact that millions of people think it makes them happy to do it?
0 replies 0 retweets 2 likesThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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