Well, virus prediction modeling just lost all credibility. But maybe only because of the way it was explained to the public? 
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I’m guessing much wider on the under. All municipalities are now sanitizing public transportation, no one is using it unless they absolutely have to. NYC didn’t see this coming so they celebrated Chinese New Year New Orleans didn’t see it coming so they held a normal Mardi Gras
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We can hope, could be way higher too if they arent factoring in how obese some areas of the country are too
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They should just compare NY to lambardy Which is the place in Italy that has been blasted. Similar population and density.
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They might be but the 26 page model is not clear. There is no r0 per state and they dont show their work clearly. Maybe amongst the model community it is but I cant see it in their paper
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But they’re trying (rightfully?) to scare the public into social distancing
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No, I think it's the best model they have. I am just saying that the range lower and higher is probably way wider based on the fact that it doesnt account for some of the most important aspects of transmissability
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Do tell!
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Public transport use is key — as is population density — unbelievable those are left out.
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Yep, it's just that it wasn't a factor in this model. They explicitly say it. I am hopeful that means way less deaths in large swaths of the country due to social distancing, but we will see
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