Why wasnt the economy shut down and people forcefully quarantined in 2009/10 when the H1N1 "swine flu infected hundreds of millions and +/- 500k people died.
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Was just gonna say we gotta consider the world population today and all the travel and open borders. Makes sense to stop the world to defeat this. Recovery from economic point of view will take the rest of our life time.
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Thanks Scott, Indeed. I wasn't trying to diminish Coronavirus or the prophylactic measures taken to reduce it
I genuinely have an intellectual curiosity as to the differences -
Is your point that why didn’t 500k swine flu victims matter? the diseases have differences but one big one is that Swine flu came first. (we are lucky it did, and SARs before that scared us but didn’t kill thousands) Wuhan coronavirus coming first would have been ugly!
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That’s 1% of those that get infected and not 1% of the overall population to be clear.
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How many will die if there is sustained worldwide unemployment of 20, 30, 40 or 50%?
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Here is a nice graph from https://covid19info.live/ that compares the case and death growth of H1N1 (Swine Flu) with
#COVID19 I think that discussion is dead now.pic.twitter.com/ltb3WQZzzX
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There wasn't global mass testing for H1N1 so that comparison makes little sense. We now know that 40-50% of US has had H1N1 by now, so the penetration has been significant.
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We don't know the case-fatality-rate for all cases. It is estimated between 0.1% (flu) and 0.5%. Right now we are only testing for people seriously ill. In the US this year, 1M influenza tests, 220,000 positive, 20,000 deaths. 10%! "tested" CFR, versus 1% "tested" COVID CFR
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