Lots of smart people are debating about the economic pain being worse than the "cure" of preventing #coronavirus spread. I don't know the right answer, but I can help you frame the question.
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Expect lots of patriotic over-hiring when we can leave our homes, at least for companies that can afford it. If we get employment right, the psychology engine will roar.
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Full disclosure, I put all of my available cash into the stock market during the downturn. When the market comes back, it will happen fast, whether a month from now, next year, or five years from now.
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If you are a new follower, it might help your confidence in my opinion to know I have a degree in economics and an MBA. I'm not an expert by any means. But I can probably see the field better than those with no training. And I don't see anything permanently broken.
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Economics is like no other field of study. It might be the only one in which you can "will it into existence" so long as everyone is on the same page and there are no material shortages. If we keep our minds right, the economy follows.
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I'm making it my job to help you do just that. We'll come out of this stronger if we all agree we will. (Spoiler: We will.) Focus forward. Winning is certain. Timing is anyone's guess.
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End of conversation
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I too have an economics degree. I've always felt frustrated by the discipline's oversimplified and overgeneralized concept of inflation. I believe there is no useful concept of a single generic basket of goods by which to measure overall inflationary pressures. Most types of e
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nergy costs are down, and...have been for a while. Money is very cheap to borrow now. But can you say the same thing about housing? Food? How about different classes of food? How many classes of labor exist, and how much variation exists among them for wages/salaries? How mu
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ch variation among relative changes among them over time? My point is simply that I worry more about inflation than most people. We may realize soon that all this stimulus and debt and money-printing by the Fed can catch up to us in a hurry. Related question: can it be said
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that negative interest rates are a form of inflation?
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Millions of people out of work. This money is reflationary. We are looking for the right amount of money delivered to the most affected people at the right time.
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