Can someone explain how we estimate the death rate for Coronavirus without knowing the denominator?
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Look at this article dated 2/5 from Taiwan. It seemed Tencent, a large Chinese internet, social media & video game conglomerate, published some alarmingly high Coronavirus-related figures before it quickly took down & republished the low official figures. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594
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If the original and unadulterated figures were to be believed, there were over 150k confirmed cases in China & almost 25k deaths at the beginning of this month - that’s 1 out 6 in simple algebra as opposed to sophisticated statistical modeling.
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That's exactly what it says, Scott. Keep preaching.
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The denominator is rising exponentially while the numerator, which we don’t know either, has a ten day lag. Multivariate equation: one raises the rate while the other lowers it.
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