When the disease has run its course, a person is either dead or cured, right? If they are still sick, we just don't know how they'll turn out. Mr. Zhao reports 5 cured for every 1 death. That's a mortality rate of 1 in 6 cases. That's 16.7777%. I rounded up.
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Replying to @Rklawton @ScottAdamsSays and
Oh, one other thing. The Chinese switched their counting methodology in the last few days. Before the switch, the mortality rate was 25%. The new methodology requires only a clinical diagnosis. Before that, they tested for the virus itself.
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Doesn't that ignore all the not-yet-cureds? I don't see how you can calculate anything useful from just the cured and fatals in the short run. (Long run, yes.)
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It definitely ignores the not-yets. And that's because we don't know how they'll go. Some will live, some won't. Of those who have gone through the process to either death or recovery, we know that 1 in 6 die, and 5 in 6 live. If we knew more about when people died...
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Replying to @Rklawton @ScottAdamsSays and
... e.g. everyone who dies, dies on day two, then we could extend the calculations to the group of sick people, too (assuming we knew how long they'd been sick). However, we don't have that information. We do, though, know how many have completed the process and their rates.
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That sounds no better than a guess. The variable that is missing is not optional to the calculation.
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What variable is missing?
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The outcome of the currently sick, or the average number of days to death or cure.
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Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @Rklawton and
Has anyone stated if this is only effecting people of Chinese descent?
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Replying to @ZiaErica @ScottAdamsSays and
The Diamond Princess cruise ship has over one hundred cases. Most of them are not Chinese. These cases all stem from a single person from the previous cruise.
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As in anyone not elderly or compromised.
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Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @ZiaErica and
I don't know the parameters of the Diamond Princess cruise ship's population, but I suspect it skews toward elderly and "lightly" compromised. Seriously compromised and elderly to the point of infirmity people likely would be at home or hospital.
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