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ScottAdamsSays's profile
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Verified account
@ScottAdamsSays

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Scott AdamsVerified account

@ScottAdamsSays

My Micro Lesson (2-4 min. videos) on being more happier and more effective in life are on Locals: http://bit.ly/2Ygv2tf 

Pleasanton CA
youtube.com/c/realCoffeeWi…
Joined October 2014

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    1. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 14 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Rklawton @JanJekielek @Laurie_Garrett

      Confusing. I can't get out of that what you got.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. Robert Lawton‏ @Rklawton 14 Feb 2020
      Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @JanJekielek @Laurie_Garrett

      When the disease has run its course, a person is either dead or cured, right? If they are still sick, we just don't know how they'll turn out. Mr. Zhao reports 5 cured for every 1 death. That's a mortality rate of 1 in 6 cases. That's 16.7777%. I rounded up.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Robert Lawton‏ @Rklawton 14 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Rklawton @ScottAdamsSays and

      Oh, one other thing. The Chinese switched their counting methodology in the last few days. Before the switch, the mortality rate was 25%. The new methodology requires only a clinical diagnosis. Before that, they tested for the virus itself.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 14 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Rklawton @JanJekielek @Laurie_Garrett

      Doesn't that ignore all the not-yet-cureds? I don't see how you can calculate anything useful from just the cured and fatals in the short run. (Long run, yes.)

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    5. Robert Lawton‏ @Rklawton 14 Feb 2020
      Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @JanJekielek @Laurie_Garrett

      It definitely ignores the not-yets. And that's because we don't know how they'll go. Some will live, some won't. Of those who have gone through the process to either death or recovery, we know that 1 in 6 die, and 5 in 6 live. If we knew more about when people died...

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Robert Lawton‏ @Rklawton 14 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Rklawton @ScottAdamsSays and

      ... e.g. everyone who dies, dies on day two, then we could extend the calculations to the group of sick people, too (assuming we knew how long they'd been sick). However, we don't have that information. We do, though, know how many have completed the process and their rates.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 14 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Rklawton @JanJekielek @Laurie_Garrett

      That sounds no better than a guess. The variable that is missing is not optional to the calculation.

      3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    8. Robert Lawton‏ @Rklawton 14 Feb 2020
      Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @JanJekielek @Laurie_Garrett

      What variable is missing?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 14 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Rklawton @JanJekielek @Laurie_Garrett

      The outcome of the currently sick, or the average number of days to death or cure.

      7 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    10. Robert Lawton‏ @Rklawton 14 Feb 2020
      Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @JanJekielek @Laurie_Garrett

      The outcome of the currently sick would give us a solid number. When we don't know the distribution of days from diagnosis to death, we can reasonably start with the assumption of a uniform distribution and work from there. We'll at least be in the ballpark.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 14 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Rklawton @JanJekielek @Laurie_Garrett

      Does that assumption work when evaluating a (possibly) never-before situation?

      5:29 PM - 14 Feb 2020
      • 3 Likes
      • Kevin Watson Jerry Holmes ME 🍿
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. Robert Lawton‏ @Rklawton 14 Feb 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @JanJekielek @Laurie_Garrett

          Yes. Take the opposite example. If patients were dropping dead in the first few days, then this would have made the news - same as if most patients lingered for several weeks before dying. If WuFlu was exceptional, we'd see reports. A flatter distribution is reasonable.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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