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The outcome of the currently sick would give us a solid number. When we don't know the distribution of days from diagnosis to death, we can reasonably start with the assumption of a uniform distribution and work from there. We'll at least be in the ballpark.
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Incidentally, the "ballpark" is pointing to the highest end of the Spanish Flu pandemic.
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Also, how many of the dead are political dissidents?
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Has anyone stated if this is only effecting people of Chinese descent?
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No information on that as far as I know.
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Also the number of unreported mild Corona cases ( impossible to know)
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From that we can count back 14 days from today, grab the total number of confirmed infections (feb 1st 14551 total cases) and divide that number into todays total death count 1526. 1526 / 14551 = 10.49 %
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We definitely know it cant be the 2.2% the media is saying because thats just dividing todays total confirmed cases with total deaths, that calculation will only be accurate After the epidemic/pandemic is over.
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Even working out deaths from closed cases gives a better overall picture of right now. Deaths 1527 / total closed cases 10037 (deaths + recovered) = 15% Even tracking outside of China 4/121 = 3.3%
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