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ScottAdamsSays's profile
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Verified account
@ScottAdamsSays

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Scott AdamsVerified account

@ScottAdamsSays

My Micro Lesson (2-4 min. videos) on being more happier and more effective in life are on Locals: http://bit.ly/2Ygv2tf 

Pleasanton CA
youtube.com/c/realCoffeeWi…
Joined October 2014

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    1. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 14 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Rklawton @JanJekielek @Laurie_Garrett

      Source?

      2 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
    2. Robert Lawton‏ @Rklawton 14 Feb 2020
      Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @JanJekielek @Laurie_Garrett

      Robert Lawton Retweeted Lijian Zhao 赵立坚

      https://twitter.com/zlj517/status/1228205284197167104 …

      Robert Lawton added,

      Lijian Zhao 赵立坚Verified account @zlj517
      1.Breaking: As of 13 Feb, there were 55748 confirmed cases(10204 severe), 10109 suspected cases in China. Total confirmed cases were 63851(1380 fatal,6723 cured). 493067 people were traced,177984 are under observation. The number of cured cases is 5 times than that of fatal ones.
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 14 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Rklawton @JanJekielek @Laurie_Garrett

      Confusing. I can't get out of that what you got.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Robert Lawton‏ @Rklawton 14 Feb 2020
      Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @JanJekielek @Laurie_Garrett

      When the disease has run its course, a person is either dead or cured, right? If they are still sick, we just don't know how they'll turn out. Mr. Zhao reports 5 cured for every 1 death. That's a mortality rate of 1 in 6 cases. That's 16.7777%. I rounded up.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Robert Lawton‏ @Rklawton 14 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Rklawton @ScottAdamsSays and

      Oh, one other thing. The Chinese switched their counting methodology in the last few days. Before the switch, the mortality rate was 25%. The new methodology requires only a clinical diagnosis. Before that, they tested for the virus itself.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 14 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Rklawton @JanJekielek @Laurie_Garrett

      Doesn't that ignore all the not-yet-cureds? I don't see how you can calculate anything useful from just the cured and fatals in the short run. (Long run, yes.)

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    7. Robert Lawton‏ @Rklawton 14 Feb 2020
      Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @JanJekielek @Laurie_Garrett

      It definitely ignores the not-yets. And that's because we don't know how they'll go. Some will live, some won't. Of those who have gone through the process to either death or recovery, we know that 1 in 6 die, and 5 in 6 live. If we knew more about when people died...

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Robert Lawton‏ @Rklawton 14 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Rklawton @ScottAdamsSays and

      ... e.g. everyone who dies, dies on day two, then we could extend the calculations to the group of sick people, too (assuming we knew how long they'd been sick). However, we don't have that information. We do, though, know how many have completed the process and their rates.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 14 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Rklawton @JanJekielek @Laurie_Garrett

      That sounds no better than a guess. The variable that is missing is not optional to the calculation.

      3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    10. Robert Lawton‏ @Rklawton 14 Feb 2020
      Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @JanJekielek @Laurie_Garrett

      What variable is missing?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 14 Feb 2020
      Replying to @Rklawton @JanJekielek @Laurie_Garrett

      The outcome of the currently sick, or the average number of days to death or cure.

      5:22 PM - 14 Feb 2020
      • 5 Likes
      • Kevin Watson Jerry Holmes Jeff Tidwell Erica like AmERICA
      7 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Robert Lawton‏ @Rklawton 14 Feb 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @JanJekielek @Laurie_Garrett

          The outcome of the currently sick would give us a solid number. When we don't know the distribution of days from diagnosis to death, we can reasonably start with the assumption of a uniform distribution and work from there. We'll at least be in the ballpark.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Robert Lawton‏ @Rklawton 14 Feb 2020
          Replying to @Rklawton @ScottAdamsSays and

          Incidentally, the "ballpark" is pointing to the highest end of the Spanish Flu pandemic.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. DiGriz‏ @TheDigriz 14 Feb 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @Rklawton and

          Also, how many of the dead are political dissidents?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Erica like AmERICA‏ @ZiaErica 14 Feb 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @Rklawton and

          Has anyone stated if this is only effecting people of Chinese descent?

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 14 Feb 2020
          Replying to @ZiaErica @Rklawton and

          No information on that as far as I know.

          0 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. viddles‏ @Dviddles 14 Feb 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @Rklawton and

          Also the number of unreported mild Corona cases ( impossible to know)

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Jai‏ @Jai_Wayan 15 Feb 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @Rklawton and

          From that we can count back 14 days from today, grab the total number of confirmed infections (feb 1st 14551 total cases) and divide that number into todays total death count 1526. 1526 / 14551 = 10.49 %

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Jai‏ @Jai_Wayan 15 Feb 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @Rklawton and

          We definitely know it cant be the 2.2% the media is saying because thats just dividing todays total confirmed cases with total deaths, that calculation will only be accurate After the epidemic/pandemic is over.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Jai‏ @Jai_Wayan 15 Feb 2020
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @Rklawton and

          Even working out deaths from closed cases gives a better overall picture of right now. Deaths 1527 / total closed cases 10037 (deaths + recovered) = 15% Even tracking outside of China 4/121 = 3.3%

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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