Hey @joelvanbrunt do you agree, based on the evidence, that we should try to stay below the recommended 2°c limit?
If so, take a clear eyed look at what needs to happen to avert the worse effects of climate change: https://twitter.com/drvolts/status/1166566558946201600 …
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This would be a good thing. Not burning down the Amazon would also be a good thing.
End of conversation
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When modeling, any that are out of the mean tend to be discarded, yes. The extra rosy ones and the extra doomsday ones. The consensus heads toward the mean. It doesn’t mean there is 0% chance we’ll have non-scary warming but the chance for scary results are much much higher.
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I’d submit “Black Swan” events, ala
@nntaleb, has disproven the normal distribution of “models”. The 2008 financial crisis is the modern “proof” of this.
End of conversation
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