I think if you could go back in time and ask Eliezer-2005 which was more probable, "Donald Trump elected President" or "Danish mortgages with -0.28% interest rates", Eliezer-2005 would answer that both were "won't happen" events but the -0.28% mortgage violated stronger rules.
-
-
I call them Trump supporters.
-
Guys the great
@ESYudkowsky is on this thread. Can we temporarily avoid the ad hominems? Make your best logical argument. (PS. I'm a big@ScottAdamsSays fan, so I might be biased. Otherwise I might have offered to moderate and keep the peace) - Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
I call them Scott Adams.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
@ScottAdamsSays correctly predicted an apparently very unlikely think AND GAVE THE REASONING WHY. Do you know what a rare resource that is? -
*unlikely event (not sure how autocorrect got to "think")
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
We can all improve our skills as rationalists, always. If you need some help, check out the Tsuyoku Naritai podcast following the Hammertime method of rational skill building:https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/anchor-podcasts/tsuyoku-naritai-the-becoming-stronger-podcast/e/60142011?autoplay=true …
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Remember in March 2017 when you wrote that trump’s critics would abandon “trump is incompetent” soon? Now, even trump supporters won’t argue trump is competent. They just say he’s constrained by the deep state. Still laugh about that from time to time.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
I keep track of Adam’s predictions. He gets about 33% of known future events correct (elections, etc.), Worse than flipping a coin.
-
Do you have it on record someplace?
- Show replies
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.