One of the great illusions of life is that "history repeats." The illusion is probably caused by our inability to notice all the times history does NOT repeat. This makes historians the least reliable observers in the game.https://twitter.com/bradleyrsimpson/status/1114299682484834304 …
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The more someone brags about their authority on a subject, the less seriously I take their analysis. Not sure if this pattern is generally true, but in my experience it has been a solid predictor.
End of conversation
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Problem: We can’t tell which ones are meaningful. Will a black man never become president? Will a non-politician ever become President?
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